Building Kashmir Into a Disaster-resilient Community

By Faizan Arif 

HUMAN-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events (hot extremes on land and in the ocean, heavy precipitation events, drought and fire weather), has caused far and wide adverse impact and related losses and damages to ecosystems, people, settlements and infrastructure, beyond natural climate variability. Terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal and open ocean marine ecosystems have also been seriously affected. Additionally, it has made it harder to meet Sustainable Development Goals by reducing food and water security.

There has been a high death and morbidity rate in all regions due to extreme heat events. Over 2,000 people died in Spain and Portugal from heat-related causes over roughly a week by an unprecedented heat wave in July this year. In 2018 alone, the EU recorded 104,000 heat-related deaths among the elderly people, over one third of the global total, according to the Lancet Countdown report published in December 2020.

The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases has increased. The spread of animal and human diseases, including zoonoses, is occurring in new locations. Climate-sensitive cardiovascular and respiratory distress has been linked to increased exposure to wildfire smoke, atmospheric dust, and aeroallergens.

Some losses have already become irreversible, whereas others are on their way to irreversibility, such as the impacts of hydrological changes resulting from the retreat of glaciers, or the effects of permafrost thaw on mountain and Arctic ecosystems.

It is becoming increasingly difficult and complex to manage the effects and risks of climate change. There will be multiple climate hazards occurring simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks interacting, compounding overall risk and cascading across sectors and regions.

Jammu and Kashmir has been witnessing an increase in a number of extreme events from the past 10 years. Massive flood in 2014, river Jhelum crossing the flood declaration mark five times in 2015, 2 dozen cloudbursts in Kashmir valley in 2015, cloudbursts at Kishtwar and Amarnath Cave Sonamarg in 2021 and 2022, respectively, extreme snow and rain spells in 2021 when the south Kashmir plains were buried under up to five feet of snow within a period of three days, untimely heavy November snowfall in 2018 and 2019, October snowfall in south Kashmir plains in 2021 and April snowfall in Kashmir plains in 2017, are a few of the extreme events that I have mentioned here. There have undoubtedly been many more. This agrees with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report ‘Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis’ – a 3,949-page report based on more than 14,000 scientific papers, written by 234 scientists, which states that extreme temperature events that used to occur once every 10 years are occurring 2.8 times more frequently nowadays, extreme precipitation events with 1.3 times more frequency and agricultural and ecological events with 1.7 times more frequency and their frequency will only increase as the temperature rises further.

By limiting global warming to less than 1.5°C in the near future, human systems and ecosystems will have substantial reductions in projected losses and damages as compared to higher warming levels.

Adaptation, as defined in the second part of the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, in human systems is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects in order to moderate harm or take advantage of beneficial opportunities and in natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects. It plays a key role in reducing exposure and vulnerability to climate change.

The adoption of effective adaptation options and public policies will help enhance food availability and stability, reduce climate risks, and increase the sustainability of food systems. Cultivar improvements, agroforestry, community-based adaptations, farm and landscape diversification, and urban agriculture are among the effective options. Agroecological principles and practices, ecosystem-based management in fisheries and aquaculture, and other approaches that work with natural processes support food security, nutrition, health and well-being, livelihoods and biodiversity, sustainability, and ecosystem services. These services include pest control, pollination, buffering of temperature extremes, and carbon sequestration and storage. Adaptation strategies that reduce food loss and waste or support balanced diets contribute to nutrition, health, biodiversity, and other environmental benefits.

The combination of non-structural measures like early warning systems with structural measures like levees has reduced the number of people killed in inland flooding. Further reducing flood risks can be accomplished by restoring wetlands and rivers, implementing land use planning measures such as no-build zones, and managing upstream forests. The management of on-farm water, storage of water, soil moisture conservation, and irrigation are some of the most common adaptation responses that reduce vulnerability as well as provide economic, institutional, and ecological benefits. Several livelihood benefits can be derived from irrigation, which reduces drought risk and climate impacts in many regions. However, proper management is required to avoid adverse outcomes, such as accelerated depletion of groundwater and other water sources and increased soil salinization.

Measures to conserve, protect, and restore natural forests are part of forest adaptation. Sustainable forest management, diversifying and adjusting tree species compositions to build resilience, managing pest and disease risks, and managing wildfire risk are examples of adaptation strategies used in managed forests. In general, improving sustainable forest management, restoring natural forests and drained peatlands, restoring and conserving natural ecosystems and biodiversity, reforestation and avoiding deforestation, agroforestry, soil carbon management, and reducing CH4 and N2O emissions from livestock and soil in agriculture can boost the resilience of carbon stocks and sinks.

A combination of conservation, protection, restoration, and targeted management to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change reduces the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change.

In order to promote urban and rural system transitions, inclusive, integrated, and long-term planning is essential at the local, municipal, sub-national, and national levels, together with effective regulation and monitoring systems in addition to financial and technological resources and capabilities. The ability of vulnerable people to adapt to changing conditions is improved when governments, civil society, and private sector organizations work together across scales.

Human health and well-being will be protected and promoted by strengthening health systems’ climate resiliency. An effective adaptation option for extreme heat is a Heat Health Action Plan that includes early warning and response systems. Improvements in access to potable water, reducing exposure of water and sanitation systems to flooding and extreme weather events, and improving early warning systems are some of the most effective adaptation options for water-borne and food-borne diseases. In the case of vector-borne diseases, effective adaptation options include surveillance, early warning systems, and vaccine development. Improved surveillance, access to mental health care, and monitoring of psychosocial impacts of extreme weather are effective adaptation options for reducing mental health risks under climate change.

By improving knowledge of risks, impacts, consequences, and available adaptation options, societal and policy responses will be strengthened. As a result of a wide range of top-down, bottom-up, and collaborative processes and sources, climate knowledge and sharing can be deepened, including capacity building at all scales, educational and information programs, use of the arts, participatory modelling, climate services, indigenous and local knowledge, and citizen science. In addition to raising awareness, these measures can influence behaviour and heighten risk perception.

A substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, the adoption of low-emission energy sources, the use of alternative energy carriers, and energy efficiency and conservation are all essential to reducing greenhouse gas emissions across the full energy sector. By moving toward net-zero emissions through low-emission development pathways, urban areas can increase resource efficiency and significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is possible for cities to reach net-zero emissions, but only if they reduce emissions within and outside of their administrative boundaries through supply chains, which will then have positive cascading effects across other sectors.

The most significant potential for decarbonization in land-based transport is offered by electric vehicles powered by low-emissions electricity. The use of sustainable biofuels in land-based transport can provide additional mitigation benefits in the short and medium term. It is possible to reduce CO2 emissions from ships, aircraft, and heavy-duty land transportation by using sustainable biofuels, low-emission hydrogen, and derivatives (including synthetic fuels). However, improvements in production processes and cost reductions are needed in order to achieve these goals. A number of mitigation strategies in the transport sector can have various co-benefits. These include improved air quality, improved health, equitable access to transportation services, a reduction in congestion, and a reduction in material consumption.

Urban planning and infrastructure design that is sustainable, such as green roofs and facades, parks and open spaces, the management of wetlands and forests, urban agriculture, and water-sensitive design, can be used to mitigate and adapt to climate change in settlements. These options can improve air quality and benefit health as well as reduce flood risks, pressure on sewage systems, and urban heat island effects.

The mitigation of land-related impacts with adaptive benefits may include agroforestry, cover crops, intercropping, perennial plants, restoring natural vegetation, and restoring degraded land. By maintaining land productivity and protecting and diversifying livelihoods, these measures can increase resilience.

A number of feasible and effective adaptation options exist which can reduce risks to people & nature, and the people & government of Jammu and Kashmir can implement some of them at least. Such proactive measures are needed at a time when Himalayas have become a hotspot of the climate change. Be it Pakistan flash-floods or Uttrakhand cracks, the signs are stark and call for the quick remedial measures. Kashmir nestling in the seismic zone 5 is another lingering worry. With studies and researches blaming the man-made interventions for the escalating eco-imbalance, building Kashmir into a disaster-resilient community becomes the primary mission.

Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer 

• The author is an independent weather forecaster, better known as “Kashmir Weather” across social media

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