Winter has Come: What’s in Store for Kashmir?

Chillai-Kalan has announced the entry of Winters in Kashmir. With the dramatic weather events of the year gone-by, what must we expect from the long winter ahead

By Faizan Arif

TODAY, the 21st of December is the first day of Kashmir’s Chillai-Kalan. Actually, Chillai-Kalan starts every year with the winter solstice and this year, the winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere is on 22 December at 3:18 am. It is a 40-day period, characterized by harsh weather and freezing of water pipes, water storage tanks, and lakes. It is sometimes even possible to play cricket and drive your car over frozen Dal Lake, albeit dangerous. During Chillai-Kalan, the top layer of Jhelum remained frozen for several weeks in the years 1658, 1764, 1759, 1780, 1816, and 1835.

Chillai-Kalan will end on 30th January. It will be followed by a 20-day long Chillai-Khurd and a 10-day long Chillai-Bache. It is said that Kashmir usually sees a lot of snow during these 10 days.

Over 40 days have passed but Jammu and Kashmir hasn’t seen any strong Western Disturbance. Seas have been calm lately. The Mediterranean isn’t brewing any storms. As of today, this month, Jammu and Kashmir has experienced a rainfall deficit of over 82%. Deficit in some areas exceeds 90%. The Union Territory is unlikely to be affected by a significant weather system until the end of the month. This is surely worrisome because our rivers are filled with water during the summer season due to the massive amounts of snow we receive during winter.

So dry Chillai-Kalan or any respite? Here are some things which can be anticipated for the rest of the winter.

Let’s talk about ENSO first. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate phenomenon that can influence weather patterns across the globe. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) describes ENSO as ‘one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn, influences temperature and precipitation across the globe.’ Likewise, Jammu and Kashmir is no exception to this rule. It is the third consecutive year in a row that La Niña, which is a cooling phase of ENSO, continues. My research on this subject shows that Jammu and Kashmir receives below-normal precipitation in the winter season when La Niña is prevalent. Moreover, December usually remains the most rainfall-deficient month and it appears the trend will carry on this winter. Rainfall is normal to excess in January and below normal in February. Although climate models currently predict below-average precipitation for January, I am skeptical since I have seen things happen outside the predictability of climate models, especially when it comes to predicting for a complex terrain like Jammu and Kashmir.

Over the last 2 years, it was January that received normal/excess rainfall, whereas February remained largely deficient. My monthly calculations of the India Meteorological Department data for Jammu and Kashmir are shared here.

In winter 2020-21, December received 58.3 mm of rainfall against an average of 64.4 mm, a 9% deficit. January received -6% of normal rainfall, followed by another dry month – February with 73% deficit. In January, 87.3 mm of rainfall was recorded whereas in February it was 35.3 mm, compared to an average of 93.1mm and 130.9mm respectively. There was a huge deficit of 37% the entire winter.

For the 2021-22 winter, the conditions were pretty much the same except for January. December and February with deficient rainfall and January with excess rainfall. Rainfall in December was 16.6 mm, January 168.7 mm, and February 77.2 mm, which is -74%, 81%, and -41% respectively against the average values. A 9% deficiency was recorded for the entire winter.

It is worth noting that during both winters, a strong Western Disturbance pounded Jammu and Kashmir in the first week of January. A five-foot layer of snow blanketed south Kashmir plains like Kulgam and Shopian in the first week of 2020. So, can we expect a strong WD to start the new year? The forecasts at the moment don’t indicate that but there is no guarantee that forecasts will hold, so let’s not lose hope.

Effects of below-normal precipitation

Below-normal precipitation during winter can have many negative effects on people in Jammu and Kashmir. Here are a few examples:

1. A decrease in glacier levels can reduce water levels in streams, lakes, and rivers.

2. Some areas experience drinking water scarcity during the summer season due to dried-up streams or low water levels in rivers.

3. Agricultural production can be severely affected by water unavailability. This year’s events clearly illustrate this. In a report published by Kashmir News Observer on 01 October 2022, about 25% of paddy land remained without crop this year due to water scarcity.

4. A reduction in the total fish population will have a devastating effect on those who depend on it for their livelihood.

5. Tourism can suffer a great deal if it stays dry, as a large number of tourists visit Jammu and Kashmir to experience snowfall during the winter season. Tourists are a major source of income and survival for many people here. Those in the hospitality industry can suffer massive losses, winter games can be affected, and can bring deeper heartbreak to poor sledge owners, along with those associated with textile industry, Kashmiri handicrafts, small eateries, tea shops, etc.

I know some filmmakers from south India who were planning to shoot a documentary for Amazon this December but now they are more likely to shoot it in the last week of January or February, as a snowless Kashmir is not alluring enough for them.

As for temperatures during La Niña conditions, on average for December-February, both Kashmir and Jammu experience above-average maximum temperatures when compared with 1980-2019 averages, whereas minimum temperatures stay below average. According to climate models, most parts of the Union Territory will experience above-normal maximum temperatures this winter as well. The reputation of Chillai-Kalan is completely at odds with this. We can only pray for some respite, otherwise, the consequences will be very unpleasant.

Views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer

• The author is an independent Weather Forecaster, better known as ‘Kashmir Weather’ across social media

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