LIKE any human , the French president Emmanuel Macron is a flawed being but he may not be faulted for remarkable maturity and leadership. In his latest overture, he has suggested that Russia be accorded the security guarantees that the county seeks- precisely the ones that were on the table when talks between Russia and the West broke down. While Macron has copped blame (of a vicious variety) for his suggestion, but if the war over Ukraine is to be stopped, Macron must be listened to.
The reasons are manifold.
One major reason is that it blows the wind out of Vladimir Putin’s sails. If the war that he started was really over the rationales he stated-NATO expansion, Russia’s overall insecurity and so on- then the Russian president no longer has any justification to pursue his war. The question is why would Putin be amenable to these guarantees and stop the war?
Because he is losing. The choices or options before the west are : should the proverbial screws be tightened against Russia? Should the war be expanded? Should regime change in Russia be the ultimate goal?
The answer to these questions must be a resounding No.
Why?
First consider the denouement of the war. What was assumed to be a cakewalk for Putin has turned to be a quagmire primarily because of Ukrainian resistance and mostly because of Western support- advice and materiel- to Ukraine. In the whole schemata, while Putin sought rhetorical escalation of the war by implied use of tactical nukes, he and his generals have been careful not to seek any entanglements with NATO- all for very obvious reasons. Now given that Putin is in a situation where he is not entirely losing the war, but surely he has not won it. The referendums he held in Russian occupied regions appear to be in the nature of creating a fait accompli mostly for tactical reasons- seek concessions at some point during and in the negotiations. If Putin is neither winning but almost losing, why create a monster out of Russia by pushing the war further?
This is not a rhetorical question but one fraught with practical implications. One is , in an inversion and reformulation of the Cold War ‘domino theory’. If the war by the West with NATO at the forefront is expanded and extended into regime change, surely military victory will be the West’s. But there will be political prices. If, to stretch the hypothesis further, the Russian regime is decapitated, China will be watching. The country will draw obvious conclusions. It may or may not attack Taiwan but its suspicions of the West will be heightened. The corollary will be the hardening of its stance and solidification of Cold War 2.0.
There are then linkages with broader international politics and world order and peace thereof.
Macron is then being a statesman if the ultimate goal of statesmanship is forging peace.
But what about European security?
Macron’s statement can be construed as augury of a distinct European security order. (In fact, he has explicitly said so). This may be a good beginning. European foreign, defence and foreign policies have fallen victim, one to the nature of the European Union construct and two its dependence on NATO and by extension the United States. The Ukraine war and the multiple crises it engendered could well turn out to be that silver lining wherein France is belling the proverbial cat. For all intents and purposes, the United States is making a pivot( not in the sense that Obama envisaged) to Asia. This from a SWOT analysis perspective is not a threat but an opportunity that Europe must grasp.
The world is in the midst of deep uncertainty- politically, economically and in terms of world politics. If the drift of things is allowed to continue, then Cold War 2.0 that is in the offing but at an incipient stage could become a horrifying reality with unintended consequences for the world at large. It needs to be stemmed, stanched and ameliorated. The path toward this starts from Ukraine in a way that addresses the legitimate concerns of Ukrainians , gives them back their nationhood but at the same time addresses legitimate concerns of Russia. War as a hoary institution has its purposes but in the final analysis contra Clausewitz ‘ all war is bad politics’. Let peace be given a chance. To repeat, the path begins from Ukraine.
Alors Monsieur Le Macron!
- Views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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