Bellwether Elections

But over the last year, Congress is facing some tough competition from the AAP which is trying to fill in the political space vacated by the former. With its recent landslide victory in Punjab, the AAP is on a roll. It hopes to replicate the performance in Gujarat. Kejriwal has exhibited political smarts to get his party up and running out of nowhere. He could very well do so in Gujarat. But it is also true that prime minister Narendra Modi’s charisma is still fresh and abiding and that too in his home state where his remarkable journey to the top began. So, it would be next to impossible to dislodge him in Gujarat. Ditto in Himachal. With every passing year, his political appeal and constituency have grown stronger and wider while that of Congress has correspondingly shrunk.

But there are still two years to go before the general elections are held, and much can change during this time. Two years is a long time in politics. Kejriwal could very well emerge as a dark horse in Gujarat. But at the national level, only a combined opposition could be expected to take on the BJP. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who recently quit the alliance with the BJP, is trying to forge an opposition unity and there are indications that he has had some success in the endeavour. But it won’t be easy to bring all the opposition parties together on one platform, more so, with several regional leaders nursing their personal ambitions. Gujarat and Himachal election outcomes will certainly offer some hint as to what is in store in 2024. Gujarat will be more of a bellwether election. Much of the future political direction of the country would hinge on the outcome in the state.