Is centre about to install a government in J&K led by the People’s Conference leader Sajad Lone? It could very well be true if the recent political developments in Kashmir are to be taken at their face value.
Already three PDP leaders – Imran Raza Ansari, Abid Ansari, and Abbas Wani – have dissociated themselves from the party. Senior BJP leaders led by Ram Madhav have held a meeting with Sajad Lone. And Lone is now camping in New Delhi to reportedly pursue the formation of the new government.
But there is still a long way to go. Except for the three PDP leaders, no other leader from the party has revolted. Things could well become clear in the days to come.
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But before such an arrangement comes to pass, it will have to get over many tricky issues. For one, the issue of who will become the chief minister. There will certainly be many leaders who will throw their hat in the ring including the reportedly favourite Sajad Lone. And the post is likely to go to the person who will command the most support among the potential legislators. Sajad Lone, for one, counts for just two MLAs.
The PDP has 28 seats and it will take a substantial chunk of the legislators to quit the party en masse for any alternative coalition to come into existence.
With the BJP’s 25, the rebels will require at least 19 more to get to the majority in the 87-member Assembly. There are four Independents, some of whom could be up for grabs.
For now, J&K is under governor’s rule. Governor NN Vohra took over following the BJP’s withdrawal of support to the Mehbooba Mufti government last month. To all appearances, he appears set to rule the state until 2020 when the term of Assembly expires. But things have become complicated of late.
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The PDP and the NC have shown no inclination towards forming a government in the current Assembly. So has Congress whose leader Ghulam Nabi Azad snorts at the idea of forming a coalition with the PDP. Mehbooba too has squashed speculation that she is in negotiations with the Congress. NC working president Omar Abdullah has demanded dissolution and fresh polls.
The situation, as of now, is in a state of flux. After an initial dismissal of reports of a new government formation, the PDP is now coming around to the evolving new reality. So is National Conference. Both are trying hard to hold their flock together. But the general opinion in the Valley is that an alternative ruling coalition cobbled from the disgruntled members of the PDP and possibly NC won’t be difficult to achieve should New Delhi be intent on this.
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