SRINAGAR Jammu and Kashmir will get the highest overall rainfall during the June-September period and July will be the wettest month, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted, according to a media report.
According to the IMD, the north-west India Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh will get the highest overall rainfall during the June-September period and July will be the wettest month, reported The Times of India.
The north-east India is expected to get least rainfall (below normal) during the period, said the report.
Prediction on the distribution of rainfall (month wise and region wise) assumes significance in view of planning Kharif sowing operations (timing and choice of crops) during the monsoon season, the report on weather said.
Meanwhile, the entire country is likely to get normal monsoon this year, except the east and northeast India, which is likely to witness “below normal” rainfall, the Met department said on Wednesday.
With this announcement, the MeT has kept its prediction of “normal” monsoon unchanged in its second stage long-range forecast. The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) during July, and 94 per cent of LPA during August — both with a model error of plus or minus 9 per cent.
Notably, anything between 90-96 per cent of the the LPA is considered as “below normal while rainfall in the range of 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered as “normal”. Also, rainfall is considered as “deficient” if it ranges below 90 per cent of the LPA and “above normal” if it falls between 104 to 110 per cent of the LPA. Above 110 per cent of the LPA is considered as “excess” rainfall.
“Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 per cent of LPA). Quantitatively, the monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 97 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent,” the IMD said.
There is also a 43 per cent probability of normal monsoon, it added.
On the progress of the monsoon, it said that the conditions are favourable for its further advancement into some parts of north-eastern states during next 48 hours. It added that the conditions are also likely to become favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of south peninsula around June 3.
“Rainfall activity is likely to increase over parts of Maharashtra and Goa states from June 6,” the IMD said. Importantly, in the first long range forecast last month, the IMD had predicted that the country is likely to get 97 per cent of the LPA (normal monsoon) with an error margin of plus or minus five per cent.
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