Karnataka Outcome Gives Opposition Hope

On May 19, the high-voltage political drama in Karnataka finally drew to a close when the Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa resigned before the trust vote which he was due to lose in the absence of a majority. Ever since JDS leader HD Kumaraswami  is taken the oath as the Karnataka Chief Minister with the Congress support. In hindsight, it was an exercise in political overreach by the BJP in the state by lunging for the government formation without commanding the necessary majority. The BJP with just 104 seats fell agonisingly short of the majority by just seven seats. On the other hand, the Congress with 78 seats and JDS with 37 stitched an instant post-poll alliance to stake claim to form the government which the governor  Vajubhai Vala  arbitrarily and summarily ignored.  He invited the BJP to form the government. What is more, he gave the party fifteen days to prove its majority in the house, thereby unbolting the door for it to engineer defection in other parties. And the BJP did try its hand on it, albeit unsuccessfully. Or may be, it couldn’t do so as the party had little time on its hands to do so, after the Supreme Court gave it just two days to prove the majority.

In a sense, Kumaraswami’s take over as the  Chief Minister of Karnataka with just 37 seats in his kitty is reminiscent of the elevation  of his father Deve Gowda as the prime minister of India in 1996. His party Janata Dal had won just 46 seats.  And that time also, he had succeeded the BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee who had quit his 13 day old prime ministership before the confidence vote which he was set to lose. And in a surprising co-incidence, his son has become  Chief Minister in similar circumstances. It is almost as if the luck runs in the family.

However, the significance of the Karnataka turnaround goes beyond Kumaraswami’s ascent to the Chief Minister’s post. It signals a reversal of sorts for the BJP ahead of the 2019 national election, which the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still favourite to win.  Suddenly, the PM Modi and the all-powerful BJP president Amit Shah have been stopped in their tracks. The BJP juggernaut has floundered after nearly pulling off a stunning victory in yet another state for their party. But by forging an alliance, the Congress and JDS have snatched victory from the jaws of the defeat.  The loss of power in Karnataka has come close on the heels of a tough victory in Gujarat where Congress fell short of a majority. Though Karnataka outcome doesn’t really detract from the BJP’s bright prospects for a second innings at the national level, a combined opposition can certainly queer the party’s pitch. And if the opposition is serious about dislodging Congress, it had better unite sooner than later.  

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