Supreme court of India is about to declare its verdict on Article 35A. The article defines States permanent residents and reserves government jobs exclusively for its residents. The verdict if read in favor of scrapping the article 35A will have far reaching consequences not only for the Kashmir, India, but for the entire Indian subcontinent. Series of violent events can be expected immediately after the verdict is read that will push Jammu and Kashmir deeper into turmoil, from where the recovery will be nearly impossible to achieve.
However, major impact of the verdict will be onIndias claim over Pak administered regions of Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) and PaK. It is noteworthy thatAmerican administration seem to be accepting Indias position on the disputed nature ofG-B and POK that could provide legal cover under International law in opposing the CPEC related activities in the disputed region. But, with the scrapping of Article 35A that legal cover would no longer be considered validas it will amount to writing off the disputed status of the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir that existed before 1947, and that according to UN Security Council Resolutions passed in 1948 is still a disputed territory. Not only that, Supreme Courts verdict will provide justification for Pakistan to alter the disputed status of G-B and POK on its own terms. Pakistan has remained averse to alter unilaterally the statuesque of the States territory it holds.
Pakistan up until now never made any serious attempt to formally integrate G-B and POK with the union of Pakistan despite the demands of the people of G-B in favor of complete integration that, however, would be considered illegal due to the disputed status of Kashmir under international lawawaiting referendum. However, in view of Indian Supreme Courts verdict if in favor of scrapping Art 35A, will encourage Pakistan to implement its own legislative changes on G-B, and can provide more control of the region legally to China. That in turn should address the Chinese concerns regarding its investmenton CPEC/OBOR projectrelated activities in the disputed region. The CPEC/OBIRroutefrom Chinas Kashgar to G-B to Gwadar in Baluchistan. Therefore, I hope Supreme Court Judges will take their decision wisely considering all the legal implications, unintended consequences, and international and local dimensionsattached to their verdict.The efforts of fully integrating Jammu and Kashmir with the union of India may do more harm than good, and may irreversibly disintegrate the State of Kashmir as it exists today.
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