Back to dialogue

On Monday, the ex-spy chiefs of India and Pakistan A S Dullat and Ehsan-ul-Haq got together at an event titled ‘Spymasters’ Meet’ in London School of Economics.  The event was unique in the sense that the former spy chiefs have earlier plotted against each other’s countries. And now here they were side by side at the event trading barbs and indulging in banter. And yes, also calling for resumption of dialogue between their countries. Dulat and Ehsan had served as spy chiefs of their respective countries in early 2000s and had spent a large part of time plotting and blunting each other’s moves. But here they agreed with many of each other’s assertion and called for settlement of the issues between their two countries through dialogue, now that the war was not an option.  Dulat admitted that the current regime in New Delhi had made “a mess” of Kashmir and stressed the need for dealing with Kashmir “in a more civilised manner”. He also batted for talks with Hurriyat, but according to him ‘the whole idea of talking to the Hurriyat is to mainstream them, get them into the democratic process”.  

Will the two countries heed the advice of their spymasters? It seems unlikely under the circumstances. More so, by New Delhi than by Islamabad. The union government has made it clear that there will be no dialogue with Pakistan unless the later stops the cross-border terrorism. Besides, the recent weeks have witnessed some belligerent statements emanating from New Delhi which have further vitiated the environment. Air Force chief has talked of India’s ability to take out Pakistan’s nuclear installations and to fight a two-front war with Pakistan and China, something that earlier the Army chief General Bipin Rawat too had said.

In response, Pakistan has warned of a swift retaliation. This is a fraught prospect and could trigger a full-fledged war should the two countries follow the lead of their bellicose rhetoric. One is scared to think of what might happen should another major terror attack take place in the country which is traced to Pakistan. Or there is an outrage along the border like Uri which led to surgical strikes – albeit denied by Pakistan.  Besides, a long break in the engagement has deprived the neighbours of the crisis tools they could have made use of in case of a major atrocity.  So, we are in a very uncertain territory. And the leadership of both the countries are responsible for putting their countries in  such a situation. More so, when war is never an option between two nuclear-armed countries. Or for that matter even between the non-nuclear countries as the US has learnt to its detriment in Iraq and Afghanistan.So, there is no option for the two countries but to talk, whether sooner or later. But the talks can’t be a repeat of the drawn and pointless processes so far. The neighbours have to ensure that the factors that have invariably aborted the previous dialogues are taken on board and the engagement guarded against them. Unless that happens, no dialogue between the neighbours can succeed.

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