What explains the sudden steep rise in militancy in Kashmir over the past six months? Most reasons refer to the fillip in local recruitment to the militant ranks, neglecting the evolving geo-politics in the region which has effectively put Kashmir on the back-burner of the international politics. And more crucially the deteriorating India-Pakistan relations which has led to the suspension in dialogue and New Delhi's refusal to talk Kashmir unless Islamabad acts against terror.
Has thus the old tug of war between the two countries once again come down to the ground in Kashmir? This is at least the thinking among the militant groups in Pakistan which are advocating resurrection of the old policies aligned to Pakistani's core interests.
The editorial of a recent issue of Alqalam, the online magazine of the Jaish-e-Muhammad, puts it bluntly: There is still time. Pakistan government should return to its forgotten policies. The result of their burial is in front of the country. Pakistan has no option but to resurrect these policies and pursue them with a renewed vigour.
As massive unrest following Burhani's killing underlines, Kashmir is once again threatening to become the battle-ground -C even while the militancy may not rise to the levels of the nineties. Though there are certainly local causes which are contributing to the recruitment, the spike in infiltration shows that the prevailing India-Pakistan equation has once again become a factor in the situation.
The violence in Kashmir no longer alarms international community but it does make a difference to how India approaches Pakistan and Pakistan India. A deteriorating Kashmir situation could bring the state back in limelight and force New Delhi to discuss it with Pakistan. Kashmir would thus once again become an issue on par with New Delhi's concerns on terrorism.
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