With foreign minister Sushma Swaraj’s speech at the UN General Assembly, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi convening meetings on the Indus Water Treaty as well as MFN trade benefits Pakistan enjoys from India, the broad outlines of India’s response to the Uri terrorist attack are becoming clear. India is looking at pressure points that can increase the cost to Pakistan for pursuing asymmetrical warfare against India. This can be a smart, 21st century way of getting Pakistan to drop terror as a foreign policy tool.
One of these is calling out Pakistan for providing safe havens to global terrorists, and Swaraj’s reference in her UN speech to how UN-designated terrorists roam free in Pakistan is a way of doing that. Second, Pakistan often invokes a human rights narrative against India and it is easy to highlight Pakistan’s much worse human rights violations: Human Rights Watch, for example, has just put out a report saying Pakistan’s police killed 2,000 people in fake encounters in 2015 alone.
If India revokes MFN Pakistan’s exports to India will be affected, but these don’t amount to much. A stronger signal has been sent by India’s steps on the Indus Water Treaty, where Modi has said “blood and water can’t flow together”. The government has decided to suspend meetings of the Indus Water Commission, saying they can be resumed only in the absence of terrorism. Second, India grossly under-utilises its share of Indus river waters even under the terms of the treaty; this share can be stepped up without violating the treaty. Completing the Chenab’s dams will take time but becomes in effect a slow-maturing pressure point. India can be receptive to Pakistan’s complaints about the dams hurting its agriculture provided Pakistan is responsive, over time, to India’s demand of dismantling its terror infrastructure.
This strategy can work if pursued in a holistic and consistent fashion. But that requires the NDA government to take some steps at home as well. First, it must strengthen homeland security and border defences. Second, it must improve the political atmosphere at home. There have been too many recent instances of bigotry vitiating the communal atmosphere, ranging from inflammatory statements by BJP leaders, to cow vigilantes acting with impunity, to BJP state governments passing and enforcing draconian laws regulating people’s diets. These have contributed to unrest in Kashmir, leading Pakistan to manoeuvre for advantage. India needs to stop scoring these self-goals.
Follow this link to join our WhatsApp group: Join Now
Be Part of Quality Journalism |
Quality journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce and despite all the hardships we still do it. Our reporters and editors are working overtime in Kashmir and beyond to cover what you care about, break big stories, and expose injustices that can change lives. Today more people are reading Kashmir Observer than ever, but only a handful are paying while advertising revenues are falling fast. |
| ACT NOW |
| MONTHLY | Rs 100 |  |
| YEARLY | Rs 1000 | |
| LIFETIME | Rs 10000 | |
