The idea of soft separatism -to eke out political space in the interstices of mainstream and separatist politics- claimed by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is dead. The siren song of the idea was PDP’s alliance with the BJP and the final nail in the coffin was Burhan Wani’s killing and then the protests that engulfed Kashmir after the killing and the state’s response to it. This response was in the nature of containing the protests and wearing down the opponent(s)n through attrition. It is now 75 days since protests erupted and there has been no fundamental change in the state’s or the separatists approach. If public opinion were to be gauged, there is an element of indifference on part of the people- essentially in the nature of a psychological coping up mechanism. So given the state’s approach and the separatists’ truculence, where is Kashmir headed to?
While impasse would be the correct word to describe the “objective reality” that obtains in Kashmir, but the term is too static if a future oriented lens or grid is adopted. A more accurate term would be that Kashmir is at an “ inflection point”. In mathematics, or differential calculus, an inflection point is a point on a curve at which the curve changes from being concave to convex or vice versa. In a more prosaic sense, an inflection point, an inflection point is held to be a turning point. Broken down and applied to Kashmir, what does this mean? The answer takes us back onto the domain of “soft separatism”- an idea that found a degree of traction among a segment of the populace in Kashmir. This segment appeared to believe that “an honourable solution” short of maximalism might be prudent for Kashmir. And it was in the matrix of soft separatism that the PDP made its presence felt. But now this space is effectively dead or moribund. Overlaying this is the fact that Kashmir is in transition- demographically, socially, economically and politically. A new cohort is replacing the older cohort of Kashmiris and the structuring context of this new cohort is the conflict in and over Kashmir made poignant by the protests and the state’s response following Wani’s death. These developments pit the new cohort against the state.
The significance of these developments go beyond the protests that Kashmir is in a vise like grip of. It stands to reason that the protests will one day fizzle out but their long term consequences and implications will be felt for decades. While the obvious connotation here is revival of militancy given that certain conditions would hold, but we would like to conceive the development more in the nature of an intense truculence on part of the new cohort of Kashmiris in terms of the conflict in Kashmir. This would mean, among other things, deepening and widening of the conflict and would set the state apart from the people. Some would thing that state power, instruments of the state and its various apparatii can contain or dull the edge of this conflict but the very fact of an overbearing state would again deepen the conflict- something that conflict resolution paradigms counsel against given that a point of no return might be arrived at.
What then would constitute a prudent approach?
One starting point would be for all parties to take an objective view of the subjective conditions that obtain in Kashmir. This could be followed by a conflict resolution paradigm that incorporates a multi stakeholder approach- especially Kashmiris. If nothing, a brain storming could ensue which might yield itself to some kind of a Modus Vivendi which is satisficing to all stakeholders. This is, of course, a very broad approach. The specifics and minutiae can evolve after initial steps are taken. If, however, there is no movement and the impasse continues, then Kashmir will become, what V. S Naipaul in a different setting and permutation called an “Area of Darkness”.
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