The rise and fall of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) emerged or was encouraged to break the monopolistic political structure of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Prior to PDP’s emergence, the National Conference dominated the political scene of the state for decades. It may have been felt in certain quarters that lack of political pluralism in the sense of lack of choice in terms of political parties in the state may have contributed to political problems here. This along with the availability of an “option” or alternative to separatism appears to have been the structuring context of the emergence of the PDP both as a political party and force. However, there are some who believe that the party received encouragement and support because a more darker aim was to fragment and divide the Kashmiri vote and in a classic case of “divide and rule” , extra regional players would come to be king makers in the politics of the state. Credence is lent to this theory by the fact that since 2002, the state has had coalition governments wherein the Chief Ministers would be Kashmiri but real power lay elsewhere. 

The fragmentation of the Kashmiri vote complemented by extra regional political brokers would, among other things, displace Kashmir as the centre of gravity of the state and elevate Jammu over Kashmir. All this may be 100% correct or there might be some variations but the fact remains that the PDP emerged as a major political force and an alternative to the National Conference. From the perspective of mainstream politics, the state of Jammu and Kashmir had a duopolistic political structure or even an oligopolistic one; people had choice now. The PDP went from success to success and gained inexorably in both vote and seat share. The 2014 elections were held by many to be watershed wherein the PDP would decimate its major opponent, the National Conference and relegate it to the margins and thereafter the PDP would dominate the state’s politics.

Fast forward two years. A totally polar and opposite picture is emerging. While the PDP which entered into an alliance with the BJP and formed the government and is still in power, the future of the party looks increasingly bleak. While some hold that the power that the PDP and the government it heads is notional after the eruption of the protest movement post Burhan Wani’s killing, other posit that even governmental power will not redeem or save the party anymore. It has lost its core support- the “wheat belts” of Kashmir and there is intense resentment against the party. This is not to imply that the party will disappear from the political landscape of Kashmir but that it might, in all likelihood, be a rump force with multiple power centers within jostling and jockeying for position, space and power. The question that emerges is why did things come to such a pass?

The answer lies in arrogance and hubris.

The PDP became arrogant and hubristic and in the process lost touch with reality. Its disconnect and flight from reality emerged initially in its alliance with the BJP- an instrumental and an opportunistic alliance for the sake of power and to deny its opponent, the National Conference, power political space. And then this arrogance manifested itself in the haughty, imperious and churlish behaviour of its political representatives. This percolated to the domains of governance, politics and government. One example that might illustrate this point was the endeavour of a Bangalore based company which endeavoured to build an unprecedented branding exercise which could catalyse investor interest in Kashmir. The specifics of company’s plan or program was to hold Davos type business summit, “IDEAS-Pahalgam” in Pahalgam Kashmir- drawing in diverse peoples- diplomats,  business leaders from India and overseas, media magnets and other eminence grises to Kashmir. The company was partnering with the Asian Arab Chamber of Commerce (AACC), which has presence in 43 countries, to bring its idea to fruition. The case was presented to the government which evinced initial interest but created such hurdles and obstacles that the organisers were forced to give up. 

From top ministers to bureaucrats to minions, promises were serially broken and lies spewed out in public and private that organisers were left with no choice but to exit. This is just one example. There are innumerable examples of government apathy cum arrogance that were signs of times to come: omens that bode ill for the PDP and the peoples of the state of Jammu and Kashmir.

Now as the protests in Kashmir which show no signs of abating enter the 3^rd month, and with PDP’s inept and inefficient handling of the crisis, what does the future hold for the party? The party which eked out political space on its distance from the Centre, in opposition or during its gestation period, has in power relinquished and abdicated even a pretence of a regional party at odds with the Centre. It has, in effect, even abdicated government and has become an extension of the Centre in the state. This – historically- has not washed well with the people of Kashmir- which remains the centre of gravity of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The methods and the rhetoric dished out by the party chief, Mehbooba Mufti, have further alienated people from the party and the Chief Minister. Given this, the likely futures that we envisage for the party are a gradual decline from its political pedestal and then a split- both vertical and horizontal- of the party. These scenarios are likely and probable. Powers that be might not want the  PDP to disintegrate and may try to prop it up as a cohesive unit. This would take blandishments, cajolery or even bribery and may or may not work. All , in the final analysis, depends upon the people of Kashmir despite the Centre’s historical role as a string puller and manipulator of politics of the state. People are the carriers and harbingers of history. Will the people of Kashmir still accept the PDP –warts and all? While predictions of this nature are something that the KO shies away from but it increasingly looks likely that a dim future awaits the PDP. 

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