Talking about talks has almost become a catechism for the eminent Economist Newspaper when writing about Indo Pakistan talks. But the catechism has a searing resonance. Again, what we witness after the unprecedented bonhomie at the highest level between India and Pakistan is the devolution or degeneration of the talks/negotiations into talking about talks. This time the culprit was the Pathankot attack and the usual suspects were arraigned for these attacks. It is almost pointless to dissect and analyze the attack and its aftermath- so hackneyed have these become given the involuted nature of the relationship between India and Pakistan. However, what is noteworthy in the aftermath of the attack is that neither country-India nor Pakistan- has taken recourse to one-upmanship or self righteous gamesmanship. There have been no mutual recriminations as well. On the contrary, the public stances of both countries have been marked by measured sobriety. This is a good omen but the problem is that the attacks have thrown the focus of the talks into disarray. To repeat, now the talks are about talks. That is, both India and Pakistan are debating whether to hold talks or not. This, indeed, corresponds to type and the past dynamic between India and Pakistan.
Does this mean that the perpetrators of the attacks have been successful?
Maybe!
However, what is also different this time is the context to the talks. A far right Hindu nationalist party is not only in power but holds absolute majority in the Parliament. And, by and large, this party (BJP) has evinced interest in talks with Pakistan. Similarly, Pakistan appears to be in a consolidation phase: while the country appears to have overcome its existential travails, it appears to want to come out of its muddle that has defined much of its post independence history. India appears to want to throw off the yoke of being in conflict with Pakistan in its quest for Great Power status. And Pakistan , to repeat is seeking security, stability and even economic development. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) becomes salient here.
Both countries then have an interest and incentive in maintaining the tempo of talks and engage in meaningful dialogue. Talks about talks this time may then might not meander into another prolonged deadlock. The question or the issue is the give and take that will inevitably happen. Each side will have to clamber down from its stated position and change the dynamic from a zero sum one into a positive sum game. While minor concessions are the easiest ones, the challenge will become acute when it comes to major concessions and issues like Kashmir. Unless a grand bargain has already been achieved behind the scenes , Kashmir will be the thorniest challenge. The problem is compounded by the total absence and omission of Kashmiris from the putative talks. Talks are well and fine but talking over the heads of the most important stakeholder-Kashmiris- is ominous. It bodes ill for the longevity and sustainability of the composite dialogue between India and Pakistan. It is in the nature of something that can potentially arouse the forces of nationalism more vigorously in Kashmir and recidivist and irredentist forces in Pakistan. Prudence then dictates to use the time for talks over talks to incorporate themes and ideas that ensure the transformation of the dynamic between India and Pakistan into something long lasting and substantive; not merely ephemeral and fleeting.
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