Kashmir is in transition. A new cohort or even generation is replacing an older one. Admittedly, this transition has been incubating since a while but it could be stated that it is manifesting itself now. The death of Mufti Muhammad Sayeed-the grand old man of mainstream politics- may be one indication of this change. Mufti belonged to a generation of politicians and politics that could be called old school (in the sense that he got initiated into a milieu and genre of politics that was different from today. The context to politics was different; the domestic contours of the conflict in and over Kashmir were taking shape and politics was more or less predictable. It was dominated by Sheikh Muhammad Abdullah with the Centre playing cat and mouse with him. But, contrary to conventional wisdom, what could be said to be the defining theme of this era is that the seeds of the future militarization of the conflict and uncertainty thereof may have been laid then. While there was an element of predictability to Kashmirs politics of yore, it was also convoluted given the nature of players and actors.
This era came to a close in 1989 when the conflict in Kashmir became militarized. (The 1975 Accord that led to the accession of the state to the Indian Union while historically relevant was, however, a mere blip like other political maneuverings that occurred in the interregnum). This was another significant time of transition in Kashmir. The main protagonists of this pivotal or inflection point in Kashmir were Yasin Malik a 23 year old lad then-and his group-the JKLF which pioneered an armed insurrection in Kashmir (an unprecedented development in the modern history of Kashmir). The conflict in and over Kashmir stood militarized.
Fast forward about two and a half decades.
The widespread insurgency that hit Kashmir has been contained by the state. However, the sentiment that gave birth to the conflict in and over Kashmir remains real.Overlaying the containment of the military side of the conflict and the sentiment is the emergence of new players and actors onto the political scene of Kashmir-separatist and mainstream.
In terms of the conflict and separatist sentiment, it is defined by a politico-military dimension. Politically Yasin Mallik- now almost middle aged survived and leads his party as a peaceful movement against the state. This space is also occupied by the gerontocratic Jamaat e Islami leader, Syed Ali Geelani and to a lesser extent Mirwaiz Umar. The militancy aspect and side of separatism is now represented by Burhan Wani- eerily almost the same age as Yasin Malik when Malik picked up the gun. The mainstream space hitherto monopolized by the National Conference is now a duopolistic structure wherein the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a significant player. The NC and the PDP jostle for mainstream space in Kashmir. With the death of Mufti Sayeed, the baton of leadership has passed onto his daughter, the 56 year old Mehbooba Mufti and the same albeit in a different context, holds true for the NC. Omar Abdullah now essentially leads the party. So, all in all multiple transitions are occurring in Kashmir at a time when Kashmir itself is in transition. Each transition mirrors the other.
The question is: what would be the implications and consequences of these transitions?
The transitions in contention and the modern political history of Kashmir lend themselves to no easy answers. However, what can be inferred from these is that Kashmir in on the cusp of deep uncertainty. In a way, Yasin Maliks legacy is now carried forward by Burhan Wani who has become symbolic of the sentiment that obtains in Kashmir and has become a bit of a youth icon. Can the same be said about Omar and Mehbooba? The answer to this question is fraught and is related to the structural conditions and sentiment overlaying these in Kashmir. The people, it would appear want peace and at the same time gyrate to the sentiment of separatism. This paradoxical condition means or perhaps implies that people want peace with justice. If Omar or Mehbooba can craft a paradigm that is a synthesis of the two almost irreconcilables, both of them might find traction with the people. But with Omars aloof elitism and the convoluted and contradictory legacy bequeathed upon Mehbooba, this reconciliation might not be possible. This leaves the space open for Burhan Wani. It is not Burhan Wani per se who is important but what he reflects and symbolizes: the sentiment for separatism. In many ways, his exploits and what he stands for accords a vicarious thrill to Kashmirs Gen Next. In other words he is what Yasin Malik was and still is to many people of Kashmir. However, separatism will not be countenanced by the state. A dialectic between the forces and ideas of separatism and the default reflex of the state will prevail in Kashmir. This dialectic and Kashmirs modern history in combination essentially hark back to one fundamental theme that cuts across the modern political history of Kashmir: uncertainty. This remains despite the transitions and their nature. And, alas, it will endure. Kashmir and Kashmiris will continue to walk the tight and slippery rope of uncertainty or in the words of the Harvard academic, Lant Pritchett, called deep uncertainty with different horizons. Disaggregated, this essentially means the axes of Kashmiris lives will revolve around the peaks and troughs of the conflict without any fundamental change in the underlying conflict. This, in the final analysis, may be called the Kashmir Curse.
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