Prime Minister Narendra Modi shook hands and talked with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif for in Paris, at the 21st session of the Conference of Parties or COP21, the global summit on climate change. This has had the news media drooling and all sorts of speculations are doing the rounds. While handshakes between heads of states and exchange of pleasantries is normal and generally does not warrant media attention, pleasantries between Indian and Pakistani heads of state do. This, among other things, is the depths that the relationship between arch rivals has plumbed to. Given the nature of the relationship defined by animus, can anything more than the obvious be read into the handshake and brief conversation on the couch?
No. Not really.
First, the lessons that world leaders appear to have learnt in todays media ecology and environment, matters of the state are best discussed away from the glare of the media- unless the media is sought to be used for signaling purposes or other reasons. Second, in terms of the Indo Pak relationship, structural conditions in both nations, militate against the resolution of outstanding issues especially Kashmir. Kashmir is structurally and indelibly woven into the entrails of the state of Pakistan and is a core component of the Idea of Pakistan. The Pakistani state has devoted and expended much resources and energy- diplomatic, political into wresting Kashmir away from India. Similarly, Kashmir is central to the Idea of India. This has grown in salience and significance with the advent of the far right party-the BJP to power in India. The BJP and its allied sister affiliates- the Sangh Parivar- deem and hold comprehensive assimilation of Kashmir into the Union. This is the sine qua non of the BJPs ideology and Idea of India.
Given this, the relationship dynamic between India and Pakistan would naturally be in the nature of a zero sum dynamic. That is, one party gain would be other partys loss. In this dynamic, either party will be maximalist- neither will climb down from the perch of stated positions. The Modi Nawaz handshake is then in the nature of a pedestrian and run of the mill encounter. Nothing more than the obvious should be read from it. The only silver lining is that this social encounter , makes the two leaders break the ice in social terms. This could be a useful starting point for the future if the two countries decide to engage in a substantive dialogue. But this is a big IF.
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