This refers to an article What is Pakistans problem with Myanmar ops? by an influential Kashmiri which gives an impression that Pakistan and its military are facing many problems whereas India is in comfortable position militarily vis-a-vis Pakistan, hence India can again inflict military humiliation on Pakistan similar to what happened during 1971 Bangladesh war. But this is not as valid an assessment as is projected in this article.
First of all Bangladesh war was not direct confrontation between India and Pakistan rather it was military intervention by India in a civil / internal war between East and West Pakistan and that too on the soil of Bangladesh where Pakistan had severe handicaps. On the contrary war between India and Pakistan on the soil of Pakistan will be different due to two reasons :-
(i)- Notwithstanding India being ~ 6 times than Pakistan the military strength of both are almost equal because, as defense / strategic commentators rightly say that (A)- Fear of possibility of nuclear war is grossly exaggerated and (B)- India can spare only ~ 750,000 military in comparison to ~ 500,000 military of Pakistan and this 1.5:1 ratio is not enough rather in modern warfare 3:1 ratio is needed when going in others territory. In addition to this, Pakistani will mobilize Jihadis from all over the world which will obliterate even 1.5: 1 ratio of Indo-Pak military.
(ii)- As far war material and money, a country in defense will need less and Pakistan will get lot of help and assistance from other countries to make up the difference. Moreover in an almost equal battle this time Pakistan need not bother to defend Bangladesh (East Pakistan, thousands of Kilometers away).
But the real problem is different. Indias policy towards Pakistan (Kashmir problem) is very simple / naive (that it expects all terrorist activities emanating from Pakistan to stop before India is prepared to even talk with Pakistan on Kashmir problem), which is nothing short of putting cart before horse. India does not understand the problem of Pakistan which cant stop all the terrorist activities from Pakistan (even if Pak military wants so which is highly unlikely as Pakistan is a theocratic State) unless Kashmir problem is solved because Islamabad, as per media reports, has laid down the lives of ~ one hundred thousand Jihadis for Kashmir.
One solution to this Kashmir problem can be the retrieval of POK (and ultimately assimilation of Pakistan) by India. But it is much bigger problem for three reasons:-
(1)- Given a choice Hindus do not want to live with Muslims and that too where Muslims are in majority. Hence unlike Hindu Goa the Hindu majority India (even during rule of Congress government) neither retrieved Muslim POK nor assimilated Muslim Bangladesh in 1971 (though two nation theory, the basis of Indias partition, collapsed in 1971)
(2)- Only martial element can suppress communal forces. Because unlike 1857 (when blood of both Hindus and Muslims flowed together on Indian soil for independence) India did not raise guns against Britishers for independence hence India was partitioned in 1947 by communal forces of both Muslims and Hindus (which were crude in case of Muslims and subtle in case of Hindus). But now it is not merely Pakistan (where Muslim communal forces will never like Pakistan to merge in India) but in India also Communal forces of Hindus have monopoly therefore Hindutva forces (major electoral base of PM Modi) will never like the unification of India.
(3)- Unification of India can be brought about only by a secular and central political party. As happens in a cell too where without powerful nucleus remaining part / body of cell can not survive similarly without strong and viable Union the periphery (the States / Provinces) of a country can never survive and that is precisely the threat India is currently facing. Notwithstanding more or less all India presence of AAPians and Shiv Sena (without backing from Central leadership) BJP and Congress remain two central parties in India, but :-
(i)- Due to its crucial dependence on Sangh Parivar (RSS, VHP etc) for electoral success, the BJP can neither become genuinely secular nor will be perceived so by ~ 200 million strong minorities in India.
(ii)- As far Congress it can not survive without Sonia Gandhi (as is evident from what happened to Congress during Presidency of Sitaram Kesari) unless it changes its constitution fundamentally, which is unlikely. Moreover (as happened to Rajiv Gandhi in Bofors case without any actionable proof) political career of Sonia Gandhi (and of entire Gandhi – Nehru family) is bound to be finished sooner than later due to revelation made by Lalit Modi in media that Varun Gandhi allegedly asked him to meet Sonias sister in Italy where she asked Lalit to give ~ Rs 3,750 millions for getting all cases against Lalit closed.
Hem Raj Jain
Bengaluru, (Karnataka)
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