A ‘mega earthquake’ is likely to strike the Himalayas this century, causing catastrophic landslides and floods and killing more than 40,000 people, Indian and US geologists have warned.
Scientists from the National Geophysical Research Institute of India and Stanford University, United States, analysed the fault that separates the Asian and Indian continental plates.
Images of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault showed that a segment of it dips downwards by 15 degrees, and is steeper and further north than suggested by previous observations. This dip could rupture and cause an earthquake of magnitude 8 or more, often referred to as a mega earthquake.
The researchers predict that the segment will break over a larger area of the fault and create a larger magnitude earthquake than previously thought.
“The larger the area of the fault that breaks, the more energy is released, and the larger the magnitude of the earthquake,” says Simon Klemperer, professor of geophysics at Stanford University and co-author of the work.
“It will happen the question is when. I would be very surprised if we didn’t have a magnitude 8 earthquake somewhere along the Himalayan Front this century.”
The study, presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco earlier this month (7 December), measured ground movements. By placing seismometers closer together in one area, the researchers have been able to produce a more detailed image of the MHT.
Klemperer says a big earthquake would start at the top of the sloping segment. “This is in central Nepal where Kathmandu is but such a big earthquake would devastate a much larger area.”
“This would cause huge landslides, some of which would dam rivers, and produce large lakes. There would be catastrophic floods,” he says.
Brian Tucker, president of GeoHazards International, an organisation that works to improve the seismic safety of Bhutan, northern India, Nepal and Pakistan, agrees that a large earthquake would occur.
“We estimated about 40,000 people would die in Kathmandu Valley alone if such a large earthquake struck Nepal 15 years ago when the population of the Kathmandu Valley was about 1.5 million. Since then the population has multiplied many fold and the quality of construction has in general worsened,” he tells SciDev.Net.
Tucker said that to prevent large-scale damage, new hospitals and schools should be designed and built to be resistant to earthquakes, and existing buildings should be strengthened, as well as “developing and enforcing appropriate land use plans and modern building codes”.
Kashmir helpline for missing relatives
SRINAGAR: A telephone helpline has been established in Police Control Room (PCR) Srinagar for all those people whose relatives or friends are in Nepal and are worried about their welfare because of earthquake there, police said on Saturday.
According to police, PCR will be in communication with Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) to get to know the whereabouts of all those citizens of J&K who are in Nepal. All concerned have been requested to call up following helpline numbers for help.
0194-2456600
0194-2450004
Do’s and Dont’s during quake time
A large number of earthquakes are felt all over the globe every year. The small ones are unnoticed while the large ones are felt over thousands of kilometers.
The big quakes are not necessarily the most destructive. Earthquakes have damaged and destroyed mans work since time immemorial.
Here, we have tried to explain the nature, distribution, causes and effects of this terrifying natural event. We look at the possibilities of minimizing its disastrous consequences.
Identifying potential hazards ahead of time and advance planning can reduce the dangers of serious injury or loss of life from an earthquake.
Earth quake problem is because in India epicenters of earthquakes are concentrated along the Himalayan Mountains, from Kashmir to Arunachal Pradesh. This region extends southwards into the Nicobar Islands. Gujarat and parts of Maharashtra are also very prone to earth-quakes. All other regions in India have smaller and fewer earthquakes. From seismicity viewpoint India has been divided into five seismic zones.
Things to do to prepare your house from earthquake loss:-
1) Place large or heavy objects on lower shelves.
2) Fasten shelves securely to walls.
3) Hang heavy items such as picture and mirrors away from the bed and any where people sit.
4) Repair any deep cracks in ceiling or foundations.
5) Store breakable items such as glass and china pots etc in low, closed cabinet with latches.
Whenever if like you felt that there is any vibration or earth quake related issue identify safe place in each room. Hide under the sturdy furniture such as heavy desk or table. Always take care at the time when you feel earth quake just go away from where glass could shatter around windows, mirrors, and picture or where heavy book cases or other heavy furniture could fall over.
The important things which is need to be with you at the time of earthquake are flash lights with extra batteries , portable radio if possible, first aid kit, essential medicine and if required some cash.
If you are in moving vehicle just stop quickly and stay in the vehicle and try to move to clear area means away from building, tress over passes, utility wires.
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