Opinion poll shows Modi losing Delhi

NEW DELHI: Since coming to power in Delhi last May with a thundering majority, Prime Minister Narendra Modi could well be looking at his first big drubbing as Delhi- the capital city of India goes to the polls on 7 Feb. A series of opinion polls carried out by different agencies reflect a common trend- that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)- a newcomer on India’s political landscape led by  an anti-corruption crusader- Arvind Kejriwal who challenged Modi himself in last year’s general elections from Varanasi, could now put the brakes on Modi’s juggernaut.

The possibility of this abrupt change in Modi’s fortunes also raises the likelihood of potentially denting his chances of consolidating power needed to speed up an economic recovery. 

That India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has ordered scores of its top national and state leaders to campaign for this weekend’s high-profile election to the Delhi assembly where the AAP is threatening to stop its momentum, is not a mere coincidence. The party claims, that since Delhi is the seat of power and all ministers live there, it is but natural that they should all get involved in the election campaign. BJP spokesman Sudhanshu Mittal dismissed reports that the party was getting nervous about a likely defeat. “Who said we are in panic? We will deploy all the resources at our command. This is Delhi. Ministers and Parliament members live here. Why should they not campaign?” he asked.

But Reuters reports that even the appointment of a seasoned politician like finance minister Arun Jaitley to oversee the campaign while he is writing this month’s federal budget may not be enough.

“This is the first time that we may see Modi’s momentum stopped and that will be a shock,” said Satish Misra, a political analyst at the Observer Research Foundation. “Despite putting every last drop of energy into this campaign, it looks like the BJP is heading for defeat.”

Modi needs to win most of the state elections over the next four years to gain control of both houses of Parliament to deliver on his promise of jobs and economic growth. The upper house, where his party is in a minority, is frustrating his efforts to pass laws related to tax and foreign investment.

The BJP’s campaign has been marked by infighting with party workers frustrated that Kiran Bedi, the first woman officer in the Indian Police Service, was appointed as the party’s chief ministerial candidate – even though she wasn’t a party member until three weeks ago.

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which is also the ideological parent of the BJP, said on Tuesday the party was struggling in Delhi and criticised Bedi, saying she was unpopular. An article, published in Sangh mouthpiece Organiser, minces no words in reminding the BJP top brass that the AAP has regained ground in the Capital. According to the article: “The top BJP leadership after receiving adverse feedback from field against the Delhi BJP, inducted Kiran Bedi and projected her as BJP’s chief ministerial nominee.” 

The article also said: “AAP through its constant field work and anti-establishment rhetoric has managed to reclaim a large portion of its lost ground. After facing a heavy loss in the general elections, and also in the recent Delhi Cantonment Board polls, a large number of volunteers and some prominent members left AAP. 

“But now the party been able rejuvenate its cadre, which has made its strong presence up to the booth level,” it said. 

According to opinion polls published this week, the Aam Aadmi Party, is on course to win between 36 and 41 of the 70 seats in the Delhi assembly.

Here’s how the numbers stack up according to different pre-poll surveys: 

An opinion poll conducted by ABP News–Nielsen on 2 Feb gave 35 seats to AAP, 29 to BJP, 6 to the Congress (INC) and 0 to Others.

Another poll by NDTV on 3 Feb gave 37 seats to AAP, 29 to BJP, 4 to INC and 0 to Others. According to the India Today Group-Cicero poll also done on 3 Feb, AAP should get between 38-46 seats, 

BJP- 19-25, Congress 3-7 seat and Others wouldn’t win any seats. 

The Times Now Poll of Polls done on 3 Feb gave 34 seats to AAP, 32 to BJP, 2 to INC and 4 to Others.

While the predictions show that the Congress party, which has dominated politics over the last century, will perhaps show its worst-ever performance in the city, indications are that the BJP will be forced on a diet of humble pie too. 

The vote will take place on February 7 and the results will be announced three days later on 10 Feb.

Follow this link to join our WhatsApp group: Join Now

MONTHLY	Rs 100
YEARLY	Rs 1000
LIFETIME	Rs 10000

CLICK FOR DETAILS