‘Hindu Jammu’ and ‘Muslim Kashmir’

NO ONE expected a clear mandate for any party in the Jammu and Kashmir elections. Even the Bharatiya Janata Party itself did not believe that it would accomplish its “Mission 44+” to wrest power in the restive state. But the results are very significant for the party and the direction that politics in the state could take.

The BJP got 25 seats in the 87-member legislature, all of them from the Hindu-dominated areas of the Jammu region. The party’s failure to open account in the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley did not surprise anyone, nor did it bother the BJP leadership.

Ram Madhav, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh official in the party, dedicated the victory in Jammu to the memory of Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, indicating that the BJP was on course to realising the dream of the powerful Hindu nationalist organisation. Mukherjee, who died in a prison in Kashmir in 1953, coined the slogan “Ek vidhan,  ek pradhan, ek nishan”  ?  one country, one Constitution, one flag. The slogan has been the clearest indiciation of the BJP’s pledge to take away the state’s special status, accorded through Article 370, even in its remaining symbolism.

Polarising the vote

As the final results became clear, a friend, a Kashmir Pandit, called me up to say with remorse that what the RSS started in Jammu in 1947 the BJP is completing now. The party has succeeded in polarising the Hindu vote and consolidating itself in the region that was significantly cleansed of its Muslims during the days of Partition.

The fractured mandate thrown up by this election, described by National Conference leader Omar Abdullah as “messy”, has created a situation in which it is difficult to imagine a government without the BJP, unless the Peoples Democratic Party and the NC join hands. The PDP won 28 seats and the NC surprised pundits who had almost written the party off after the September floods. It won 15 seats, including two in the Jammu region, a near-miracle, given the polarised atmosphere.

So what does the 2014 state election in Jammu and Kashmir reveal? The Muslims in Kashmir voted for a range of political forces, a part of their decision being a negative vote against the BJP, while the Hindu-dominated areas stood solidly behind the saffron party. An elderly acquaintance in Srinagar said, “The foundations for the division of the state on communal lines have been laid.” A nebulous demand for separate statehood for the Jammu region has existed for many years.

Ideological compromise

The only way now for the demand to remain dormant is if either the PDP or NC is able to reach an ideological compromise to form a government with the BJP. The PDP believes in a certain form of self-rule for the disputed state, while the NC maintains that the state did not merge with India but acceded under conditions that it would enjoy a certain quantum of autonomy within the Indian state.  

The BJP’s newfound strength in the state almost checkmates both the Kashmiri parties into collaborating with the Hindu nationalist party if they want to stay relevant. At the same time, joining hands with the BJP alienates them from their primary constituency, the Kashmir valley.

Both, the NC and the PDP have previously worked with the BJP at the national level but have had difficulty explaining such political convenience to their voters. Both are wary as well as needy now.

But the 2014 election result is also spurring the arch-enemies of Kashmir politics to join together to keep the BJP away. It becomes a Hobson’s choice for the Kashmiri rivals, as many would see  an alliance between the PDP and NC as “ganging up” against Jammu. Either way, the schism between “Hindu Jammu” and “Muslim Kashmir” appears more real. 

Boost for separatists

This situation could give a new fillip to separatist politics in the state. If the latest state elections produce any of the explained consequences, the separatists could receive new credence for their argument that the pro-India political parties are merely forces of New Delhi’s authority in the state.

A situation in which both the regions of the state perceive that democratic elections produce disempowerment could potentially re-energise the political question around the status quo on Kashmir.

The mainstream political parties in the state and across India may celebrate the highest voter turnout in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 since the insurgency as a “victory for democracy”, but the BJP’s rise could destabilise the conditions slowly brought about by repressive means since the 1990s.

The direction of attempts at government formation in the state over the coming days will reveal if elections alone can be a route to resolving the political issue of Kashmir. –Scroll

Follow this link to join our WhatsApp group: Join Now

MONTHLY	Rs 100
YEARLY	Rs 1000
LIFETIME	Rs 10000

CLICK FOR DETAILS