The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections have yielded a verdict so fractured that only the adjective messy, which was employed by National Conferences Omar Abdullah, or its synonyms could describe the situation aptly. No clear winners have emerged from the heat and dust of the polls, leaving all attempts at government formation hinging on fragile alliances between reluctant partners.
The Bharatiya Janata Party broke new ground in the state, winning 25 seats in the 87-member Assembly a gain of 14 from the 2008 elections. While Peoples Democratic Party emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats, its arch-rival, the National Conference, managed to win in 15 constituencies. The Congress, in consonance with the partys all-round decline, came fourth with 12 seats.
Off all the members of the dramatis personae, the results disappointed PDP, which was hoping to win more than 35 seats. In Srinagar on Tuesday, PDP president Mehbooba Mufti said the party is weighing its options. It will take some more time to think about the possible formations that will suit the agenda of PDP, she said. We are exploring a few possibilities that will be in favour of people.
By contrast, Abdullah showed little anxiety on Tuesday, secure in the knowledge that his party will continue to play a key role in the states politics in the coming years.
Abdullah said he will not go to offer support to the PDP, but he can be asked for support. However, their partnership is improbable. The two parties are arch rivals, with different ideologies. The PDP believes in self-rule for the state, while the NC talks about greater autonomy. Also, their government is likely to be rendered anaemic with the BJP holding the reins in Delhi.
Inescapably, over the next few days, the saffron party will be at the centre of all talks even serving as the glue among parties wanting to keep the BJP out of government.
BJP president Amit Shah said in New Delhi on Tuesday remarked that all options are open for them, but the results show the government has to be Congress-free. The BJP may find a ready partner in Sajjad Lone-led Peoples Conference, which won 2 seats (Handwara and Kupwara) in north Kashmir. Lone had earlier openly shown support for the BJP.
Before the counting of votes started, Lone said he would like to participate in government formation irrespective of which party gets majority. Mine is a small party and I have no decisive role in anything, he said. Kindly dont think I am some game-changer.
There is a possibility that the PDP could ally with the Congress and then reach the majority mark with Independents. The ball is in PDPs court, said senior Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad. It is up to the PDP whether it wants to go with communal forces or secular ones.
If the Congress and PDP do join hands, the going will not be easy. Their government will face stiff opposition from the numerically-strong NC and BJP.
If any of the alternative scenarios emerge of the PDP allying with BJP or the NC partnering with BJP there will again be dissonance. While performing well in the elections in Jammu, the BJP drew a blank in the Kashmir valley. The saffron party wants to revoke Article 370 and dilute laws seen as discriminatory to Jammu. Any alliance the regional parties form with the BJP may not be viewed kindly by the voters. –Fahad Shah (Scroll)
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