PDP may win 36-41 seats, BJP 16-22, NC & Congress 9-13 each
SRINAGAR: The polling for four-cornered contest of Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections 2014 finally came to an end on Saturday. The first exit polls show Jammu and Kashmir returning a hung verdict with PDP emerging as the single largest party followed by BJP.
Though the results for the five phased staggered polling in the state will be declared on December 23, C-Voter Exit Poll declared that the incumbent Omar Abdullah led-National Conference (NC) government will not remain in power anymore.
BJP is, however, likely to fall much short of its Mission-44+ target in the 87-member Assembly.
Pollsters have put BJPs likely tally in the state at 27-33 seats with a lion’s share, 25-31, coming from Jammu region.
Ruling National Conference may register its worst-ever performance and is predicted by C-Voter poll to come third with 8-14 seats followed by Congress with 4-10 seats. Others may get 2-8 seats.
According to the exit poll, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah who contested from two Assembly seats is expected to win from Sonawar in Srinagar.
VOTE SHARE
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed-led PDP is expected to get 28% votes with BJP expected to get 20% votes. The Abdullahs-led NC is expected to get 23% votes and the Congress may get 17% votes. The JKNPP may get 3% votes and others may garner 9% votes.
NO SEAT FOR BJP IN KASHMIR VALLEY
According to the exit poll, the BJP despite a high decibel campaign across the Kashmir valley is unlikely to get any seats there. The PDP is expected to win most of the seats in the valley. Remaining seats may to the National Conference and the Congress.
CM OMAR MAY WIN FROM SONAWAR, LOSE BEERWAH
According to the exit poll, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah who contested from two Assembly seats is expected to win from Sonawar in Srinagar. He is likely to lose Beerwah seat in Badgam to the Congress.
TOUGH FIGHT IN LADAKH
According to the exit poll, Ladakh with four Assembly seats may throw up some surprising and shocking results. In Nobra, the BJP is in a close fight with the ruling NC. In Leh, it is in a close fight with the Congress. The Congress is expected to win Kargil. In Zanskar, the Congress is in a close fight with an Independent candidate.
BJP LEADS IN JAMMU
As expected the BJP is likely to do well in Jammu region with 37 assembly seats. It is expected to win 14-20 seats in the region.
ADVANTAGE PDP
If the PDP wins 36-41 seats, it can take the support any political party except the ruling NC to reach the halfway mark of 44 seats. It can even go with the Panthers Party and Independents. Or it can even clinch a deal with its former ally the Congress.
It can even go with the BJP. If the BJP does not go with the PDP or the PDP declines the BJPs offer, for the first time the BJP can become the main opposition party in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly.
2008 RESULTS
When we look at the results of last Assembly Elections in Jammu and Kashmir, National Conference emerged as the largest party winning 28 seats out of 87 assembly seats. PDP was on second place with 21 seats while the Congress got third spot winning 17 seats. The BJP could only win 11 seats.
Though NC became the largest party, they failed to achieve the majority mark of 44 seats. With the support of Congress, NC formed government in the state and Omar Abdullah became the states youngest ever Chief Minister at 38.
But the political scenario has changed after general elections 2014.
Riding on Modi-wave, the BJP is winning every big election in the country. But it appears the Modi-magic has had limited impact in Jammu and Kashmir
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