After a thumping victory in the recent Parliamentary elections in India, the ruling BJP has already fired many salvos as part of the run up to the Assembly elections, which are being conducted later this year. Till a few years ago BJP was not even considered a part of the electoral equation in Jammu and Kashmir. But before the last assembly elections held in 2008, it found itself being presented with a great electoral issue, by the then ruling party PDP. As the then Congress-PDP Govt was coming to the end of its six year term, PDP resigned from the Govt, in protest against giving land to the Amarnath Shrine Board for conducting Amarnath Yatra. Though PDP was in Govt and the forest portfolio was also held by it, the party thought it politically prudent to resign from the Govt a few months before the end of its term. The issue of handing over land soon led to widespread protests during which more than sixty people lost their lives to the security forces and police firing. It also led to deep polarization between Kashmir and Jammu Province. It was the perfect electoral issue for the BJP to encash from and it reaped big electoral dividends by playing on the manufactured insecurities of people in the Jammu region. For the first time BJP won so many seats in the J & K Assembly. Though it did not vote any seats in the Kashmir region, it won enough seats in the Jammu province to emerge as a major political force in the State.
This year it is making all out efforts to perform even better than the previous elections. After coming to power, Mr Modi has visited the State twice. The party has also made noises about Article 370. The Party President Amit Shah recently made its ambitions of trying to form the next Govt in J & K known, by calling it BJPs Mission 44. Given the precarious political situation in the State and the polarization that has been generally built throughout India after BJPs ascent to power, the party sees improved chances of forming a Govt in the State. It may do well in Jammu City and other urban areas of Jammu province. But there are 13 Muslim majority constituencies in the Jammu region, where it may benefit from a split in te votes between PDP, NC and even Congress.
The political challenge that BJP faces in the State is also not very formidable, given Congress is a demoralized lot and may not be in a position to put up a serious fight. NC has lost its goodwill not only in the valley but in the Jammu region as well. PDP has emerged strong in the valley and may do well in pockets of Jammu region. BJP, apart from counting on its strong vote base in urban areas of Jammu province, will try to target about six seats in the valley, where the Kashmir Pandit community has a sizeable number. In case of an election boycott call, these constituencies will prove to be crucial to not only BJPs fortunes, but to the overall direction of the State as well. It might be difficult for BJP to come to power on its own, but a BJP led coalition Govt cant be ruled out. BJP also needs its Govt in the State to scrap Article 370.
Not only the mainstream political parties in the State have to take this threat of a BJP Govt seriously, but the separatist leadership will also do well to not appeal for election boycott this time. A higher voter turnout in the valley may prove detrimental to BJP’s fortunes.
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