If the Modi’s magic works in J&K, PDP would be caught between tough choices, writes Abrar Ganaie
Prime Minister Narindera Modi is all set to kick off the BJP’s much coveted mission-44 campaign for J&K. The party wants to displace Congress from the position of being a kingmaker in the state. Although BJP’s mission seems an untenable goal, much would depend on how the new government at the center would fair vis-a-vis Kashmir and the rights of people here.
On the other hand, Congress seems to have lost hope. Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad’s opting out of the forthcoming assembly elections proves that he is unsure of his personal victory? Azad made his announcement after he told a Congress convention in Jammu’s Udhampur town that his party would get a majority in the polls, expected in October. The nervy gesture of a top leader of Congress, shying away from elections has thrown up a bad advert for the party.
Also, the parting of ways with the regional National Conference has put the Congress in an unenviable position in the assembly polls. It is now pitched against the BJP, which is eyeing power in the state and also against the NC, which has said it would field candidates against the Congress.
Whether the BJP’s mission 44 rhetoric pays off well is a separate debate, the moot point right now is that any sort of electoral gain for BJP will be at the expanse of Congress during the elections.
In the Valley, the NC believes that severing ties with the Congress is likely to come in handy as aligning with the centrist party did not augur well for the NC, which is largely a Valley-centric party.
NC leaders have been saying that they have already paid a heavy price by aligning with the Congress. While the NC opposed the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and demanded its repeal, the Congress, for obvious reasons, prefered to remain silent on the issue. With the Congress having to field candidates in the Valley against the NC, the division of votes could benefit the opposition PDP led by former Chief Minister Mufti Muhammad Sayeed.
The Congress has three seats in the Valley – Kokernag, Dooru and Uri – represented by three ministers, Peerzada Sayeed, G.A. Mir and Taj Mohiuddin.
With the NC now fielding candidates against all the three, their chances of victory would suffer badly. The advantage would obviously go to the PDP.
Azad’s home district of Kishwar and the other three districts of Doda, Ramban and Reasi in the Chenab Valley are also likely to throw up surprises in the assembly elections.
The seven seats in the Chenab Valley, comprising three districts, are no longer in anybody’s kitty. There would be tough contest and surprises are likely to be thrown up.
News from constituencies in Jammu, Kathua and Samba districts is not heartening for the Congress. Vijaypur, Akhnoor, Chambb, Gandhi Nagar and Hira Nagar, which were once believed to be strong Congress bastions, are also up for grabs as it was the BJP candidate who grabbed the votes in the Lok Sabha elections.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has planned five election rallies in the state to garner support for BJP candidates. Even his Ladakh trip is seen as the beginning of the high-profile campaign that Kashmir awaits ahead of the assembly poll. If the PDP gets the largest number of seats in the state short of a simple majority, would it align with the BJP?
Ideologically it would be very difficult for the PDP to align with the BJP, but the party would be hard-pressed to review its decision if BJP replaces Congress in Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu region. There are many among PDP ranks who recall Omar Abdullah’s tenure as a minister in Vajpayee government. They ask their leaders if Omar could survive the alliance and get to the seat of chief minister, why PDP should be afraid of breaking bread with BJP. If politics is art of the possible, then the PDP aligning with the BJP might not ruffle many a feather in J&K after the assembly elections. But there are wheels within wheels. The party is in the infancy of its grows as a force in J&K and the top leadership does not want it to be stamped as yet another party hungry for the power.
For the record, the NC has 28 seats in the 87-member assembly, the PDP 21, the Congress 17, the BJP 11, the Panthers Party two and the Communist Party of India-Marxist one. The remaining seven seats are with smaller parties and independents.
The Congress had entered into a power-sharing arrangement with the PDP in 2002, with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed handing over the baton of chief ministership to Azad in 2005. However, the PDP walked out of the coalition in 2008 following the row over the allotment of land to the Amarnath Shrine Board. After a brief spell of governor’s rule, elections were held in November-December and a Congress-NC government assumed power in January 29, this time with Omar Abdullah at the helm for the full six-year term.
Follow this link to join our WhatsApp group: Join Now
Be Part of Quality Journalism |
Quality journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce and despite all the hardships we still do it. Our reporters and editors are working overtime in Kashmir and beyond to cover what you care about, break big stories, and expose injustices that can change lives. Today more people are reading Kashmir Observer than ever, but only a handful are paying while advertising revenues are falling fast. |
| ACT NOW |
| MONTHLY | Rs 100 |  |
| YEARLY | Rs 1000 | |
| LIFETIME | Rs 10000 | |
