In Pakistan, Army still calls the shots

Last year, Pakistan saw the transition from one elected Govt to the next, for the first time in its history. The previous Govt, led by the Pakistan People’s Party, PPP was defeated at the hustings by Nawaz Sharif led Pakistan Muslim League, PML-N. Most political analysts and commentators appreciated this democratic transition. Pakistan has a long history of Army Generals taking over the reins of power, by overthrowing elected Governments. The last time, it happened in Oct 1999 when gen Parvez Musharraf overthrew the Govt of the present Pakistan Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif. He had to live in exile in Saudi Arabia and returned to the country in 2007. Gen Parvez Musharraf had to bow down to a popular movement led by Pakistani lawyers and eventually elections were held in Pakistan in 2008.  

The Pakistan People’s Party won those elections and ruled Pakistan for the next five years running a coalition Govt. Though Army has apparently limited itself to the barracks during these years and allowed the Civil administration to run their affairs, it seems Pakistan Army still calls the shots in the country, albeit without using a coup or overt force. The only difference being that the Army’s interventions now are more subtle than they ever were. In the latest round of political developments in Pakistan, the Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf led by Imran Khan is planning a long march called the Azadi March and Canada based Pakstani cleric Tahir ul Qadri is planning an Inquilab Rally. No one knows for sure whose script they are acting. Even assuming they are playing their own game, the theatre will not be in their control. They may well create the conditions for a political change in Pakistan, but it will be the Pakistan Army which will decide the final course. Any country which has seen the Army taking political role for a very long time can not expect its Army to so easily give up the privileges of power without accountability. A recent case is that of Egypt. The country witnessed millions of people protesting in Tahrir Square in Jan 2011, which ultimately led to the toppling of the previous Govt led by Hosni Mubarak. Behind curtains, Army cleverly staged its subsequent moves which culminated in the death of hundreds of protesters in July 2013 and paved the way for an Army coup led by gen El-Sissi. In such countries, it is extremely difficult to keep the Army away from power, since they are firmly entrenched in politics. Given the lack of strong political institutions, it becomes easy for the Army to step in and take over the reins of power.

For long Nawaz Sharif has lived under the shadow of the Army, given that he was a protégé of the former dictator gen Zia ul Haq. But he is no more the Pak Army’s blue eyed boy. For long the army used him as an effective counterweight to the PPP. But Nawaz Sharif and his family, including his brother, The Punjab CM, Shahbaz Sharif have monopolized power in Pakistan and the Army seems uncomfortable with that. PML-N has already handed over the security of the capital Islamabad to the Army. It has earned flak for this decision. Imran Kahn and Tahir ul Qadri are perhaps trying to exploit this strained relationship between tye Army and PML-N. the Govt will have to deal with these political marches on their own and the army will not come to its rescue. If these two leaders manage to drum up and mobilize enough supporters for their marches, the Govt will find it extremely difficult to handle them, given the Punjab Police is highly politicized. The Pakistan Army will be watching these developments keenly.

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