Pakistan at the Crossroads

~ Amid Current Chaos and Challenges, the Key Question Pakistan Faces is whether it wil be able to Complete the Current Second Consecutive Democratic Order, or whether it will Slip further into a “Political Turmoil”? ~

On the one hand, on June 5, 2014 Nawaz Sharif (as PM of Pakistan) completed the first year of the second consecutive democratic regime (in post-Musharraf era) after the  2008-2013 ‘Zardari-Gilani era’—a “landmark achievement” because for the first time in the history of Pakistan a democratically elected government completed its full term of five years. But on the other hand, Pakistan is still at a “critical juncture” in its political history as it is facing enormous challenges—both internal and external—ranging from socio-economic, political and of violence (like the terrorist/violent activities of PTT and other terrorist groups: the most recent being the Karachi Airport Attacks), and many threats of “tsunami” and of “peaceful revolution” protests and marches from Imran Khan (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf: PTI) and Tahir ul Qadri (Pakistan Awami Tehreek: PAT) respectively.

Thus being at the crossroads on one side and keeping in view the political trajectory of Pakistan’s governing structure—which has faced, over the decades, a host of difficulties and did not let the democratic principles, institutions and processes develop firm roots in the polity—many have called it a country that is on the either on the “Eye of a Storm” or is politically “a failure” state”; a “Country in Crisis”, facing  mostly the “Crisis of Governability” and  is thus either in a “Fruitless Search for Democracy” or with a “poor track record of democracy”. And having made a “Drift into Extremism” and being “on the Brink” of “Chaos” and “Crisis”, for many the “Pakistan Cauldron” suggests its “Stability Paradox” that has always depended on the clichés of three “A’s”: “Allah, Army, and America”, and is now “Waiting for Allah” because it is at a “critical juncture”—at a “critical juncture in its political history as it undertakes an uncertain journey towards democratization”. 

Moreover, many writers (Pakistanis, Westerners, and others), especially in post-9/11 era, have authored books on various aspects of Pakistan history, especially political, with very “terrifying”, “scary”, “distressing”, and “precarious” titles. Just having a look on these titles, it seems as if Pakistan is going to “perish” from the globe just in few moments. For example, Kalim Siddiqui’s Conflict, Crisis, and War in Pakistan (1972); Howard Wriggins’ Pakistan in Transition (1975); Lawrence Ziring’s Pakistan: The Enigma of Political Development (1980); Christina Lamb’s Waiting for Allah (1991); Ashok Kapur’s Pakistan in Crisis (1991); Hassan Abbas’s Pakistan’s Drift into Extremism (2004); Lawrence Ziring’s Pakistan at the Crosscurrent of History (2005); Owen Bennett Jones’s Pakistan: Eye of the Storm (2009); Ahmed Rashid’s Descent into Chaos (2009) & Pakistan on the Brink (2012); James P. Farwell’s The Pakistan Cauldron (2011); Anatol Lieven’s Pakistan: A Hard Country (2011); Farzana Shaikh’s Making Sense of Pakistan (2009); and most recently Ashutosh Misra & Michael E. Clarke’s Pakistan’s Stability Paradox (2013), and the list continues. These titles reveal that almost whole history of Pakistan revolves around this “enigma”, “cauldron”, or “storm”, which is not true fully because these depict just an instance in the history of Pakistan.

Besides all this, the key question Pakistan faces today is whether it will be able to complete the current second consecutive democratic order, or whether it will slip further into a “political turmoil” that has characterised most of its history—during Gen(s) Ayub Khan in 1960s, Zia ul Haq in 1980s, and Parvez Musharraf in 2000s. But amid this ‘chaos’—including threats of “tsunami” and “peaceful revolution” protests and marches and of Taliban terrorist threats of “blowing up” this and that—and the ‘challenges’ Pakistan is facing, there is hope for the stability and success of democratic governance and political stability in Pakistan.

Whether Nawaz Sharif completes his tenure successfully or not? Will he be able to bring political and economic stability (“democratic stability”) in Pakistan? Will his government be able to cope up all the challenges? These questions are in the minds of many scholars and have been debated and discussed very much. Here is what Pakistani and non-Pakistani academicians and analysts predict, presume, and postulate for the smooth success of second democratic regime and of political and economic stability in country in the coming years:

Prof Hassan Askari Rizvi (Pakistani political scientist, military/defence analyst) emphasises that democracy was a lengthy process and would show its fruits after holding of four to five consecutive elections. For him, military interventions had not given a chance to political parties for strengthening democracy. Prof Tahir Amin, Professor and Chairman of the NIPS, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, (in a personal meeting with this writer on 22 April, 2014) revealed that he believes that “democracy is not only a lengthy, but slow and gradual process”, and he shared that he is much hopeful that “after holding three to four consecutive elections (2008 and 2013 elections included), Pakistan will make a successful transition to ‘stable’ democracy”. He believes that “viability of democracy” in Pakistan depends on both internal and external factors, and the role/intervention of army, which has in post-Musharraf era “stepped back” to a great extent, is also crucial in having an “effective democracy” in Pakistan. Coincidently, both Prof(s) Rizvi and Amin are almost of same opinion as far as Pakistan’s successful transition to ‘stable’ democracy is concerned.

Presently what Pakistan is in need of, in the words of Saeed Qureshi (a senior journalist, editor of Diplomatic Times and a former diplomat) is to “Let the present government stay at the helm for the same constitutional period [i.e., for its full term]. It would be up to the people to re-elect or reject it in the next elections. That is how the democratic tradition would be firmly rooted and flourish” (“Viva la revolución?: What revolution is Dr Tahirul Qadri talking about?”, Pakistan Today; also published in Pakistan Observer, June 25, 2014).

Similarly, to “rebuild and put Pakistan together in some new order”, the need of the hour is, as suggested by Anwaar Ahmad Ch in his “A futuristic vision of Pakistan” (Pakistan Today, June 22, 2014), a “purposeful implementation” of some measures—which include extra-focus on ‘Honest and capable leadership’; ‘Social justice’; ‘Education’; ‘Economic growth’; ‘Health care’; ‘Energy sector’; to combat fully ‘Terrorism’; to sustain and strength the transparency in ‘Foreign affairs’; ‘Austerity’; ‘Accountability’; and ‘Police’. For him, this will surely “accelerate the process of rebuilding of Pakistan”, because majority of the Pakistanis are committed “to rekindle the hope of abolishing poverty, unemployment, insecurity, extremism and terrorism” in Pakistan in a “foreseeable future.”

But there are others who are critical of Nawaz government. For example, in “PML-N’s poor governance” (Pakistan Today, 21/07/2014) begins by these lines:  “PM Nawaz has been in power for almost 14 months [from June 5, 2013], and other than mere announcements of mega projects, such as building highways, motorways etc, there has neither been structural reforms to revamp a decadent bureaucracy, improve tax collection, police reforms, nor investment in neglected and inadequate health and education sector”.

Lastly, it is pertinent to quote Shahid Javed Burki’s more-than-a-decade-old-argument: “The challenges facing the country are enormous [social, political, economic, internal and external]; so, too, is its potential. Will Pakistan realize its potential? Or will it be overwhelmed by its problems? Only time will tell” (Burki, Pakistan: Fifty Years of Nationhood, 1999, p. xxi).

Thus, to make a long story short, it is safe to argue that in Pakistan, amid the present prevailing “chaos” and the “challenges” Pakistan is facing, there is ‘hope’ for the success of its democratic governance and for its political stability as well——of course on the conditions (among others) that (i) Pakistan realizes its potential, (ii) opposition parties do not create hindrances in the smooth functioning of the governments-in-power (for full-term), (iii)  the government works very transparently and accelerates the process of rebuilding of Pakistan, (iv)  the government makes a purposeful implementation of measures like extra-focus on  honest and capable leadership and  socio-politico-economic sectors, (v) combats  fully  terrorism and violence,  and above all (vi) the government comes out of the scenario of  the “dynastic” politics. Let’s hope it comes out of these “critical junctures”, “enigmas”, and “cauldrons” and ‘hope’ it  creates a new history—a history full of hope, optimism, progress, advancement, and much more. Thus, amid chaos and challenges there is hope, and “hope never dies”.

* Tauseef Ahmad Parray (a Kashmiri Researcher with recent PhD in Islamic Studies from Aligarh Muslim University) is presently “Iqbal (Post Doc) Fellow” at the Iqbal International Institute for Research and Dialogue (IRD), International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan. He can be reached at [email protected]

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