SRINAGAR: The fear of Omar Abdullah’s fall in the upcoming assembly elections loomed larger during the strategy meeting held Wednesday at Nawa-e-Subuh, the headquarters of the ruling National Conference, party sources disclosed. This fear, the sources said, has led to a hectic study of all the eight constituencies of Srinagar ” so that Omar is fielded from a constituency he could win hands down.”
“Our party has already suffered a jolt due to the unfortunate defeat of Farooq Abdullah in the parliament poll, it cannot stomach the defeat of Omar Abdullah in the forthcoming elections for the J&K assembly. We have to be careful while choosing a constituency for him,” a party elder is learned to have opined during the marathon meeting which was held while the patriarch Farooq Abdullah remained away in London.
According to the vote share secured by political parties during the just held parliament elections, the ruling National Conference has got 11.1 percent share, which is way behind BJP’s 32.4 percent or PDP’s 20.5 percent. Even Congress has scored 22.9 percent share of the total votes cast.
Such statistics coupled with the senior Abdullah’s defeat has already cast a demoralizing effect on the NC cadres. “If Omar too falls in such a scenario the party will sink like the Titanic,” said a visibly worried NC activist who wished anonymity.
Sources privy to the hectic meeting on Wednesday said the party elders don’t want Omar to contest assembly elections from a vulnerable seat. “Ganderbal is slippery and the cadre there has already rebelled in past. Traditional constituency Sonwar was a good choice but Omar has never focused on the vote-getting areas of Dhara and Faqeer Gujri or other adjoining areas,” a source quoted an NC strategist as said during the CWC meet.
Amira Kadal constituency comprises newly developed posh inhabitations such as Chanapora, Hyderpora, Rawalpora etc where the genuine voter population has either moved to Budgam or switched to PDP. ” Omar cannot let Nasir Sogami opt out of contest because he is his trusted lieutenant against his older foes within party,” a keen election watcher said. Then there are NC’s core constituencies, Khanyar and Batamaloo, which Ali Muhammad Sagar and Irfan Shah represent in the assembly.
The sources, quoting discussions during the meeting, said both the constituencies were considered a no-go for Omar. Sagar, the party cadres believe, is himself vulnerable due to invisible spread of PDP in downtown. “It is not advisable for Omar to be threatened by a first-timer (meaning Khurshid Alam). Batamaloo has traditionally been the NC bastion but Irfan Shah has long been sulking. Even at one point there was a rumor of him being ready to join PDP.”
Idgah and Hazratbal too have inherent problems. If Omar chose Idgah Mubarak Gul, the sitting MLA from the area, will fight as independent giving way to PDP. Hazratbal could be a choice but Asiya Naqash had lost to Farooq in 2008 by a little margin of 5000 votes. That means PDP has rooted there as well.
This leaves Habba Kadal, presently represented by Shamima Firdous, the only woman MLA from Srinagar district. “If we field Omar from any other constituency the sitting MLAs can work at cross purposes with the party and that would backfire the whole scheme. Shamima is a long time loyalist of the Adbullah family. She can be convinced for a different role outside assembly in case NC assumes power. Even if we end up as an opposition in the assembly she could be given a high-profile party position to make good the loss she would incur by sacrificing the seat for Omar,” said a senior worker of National Conference.
Given all the analyses, the NC strategy chambers are busy with, the party seems groping for single ‘safe seat’ for its leader. This signifies the fastest ever erosion of support base during NC’s 75-year-old legacy resistance and power.
GUV CM DISCUSS POLLS: Chief Minister Omar Abdullah Thursday discussed the likely schedule for the assembly elections due here any time by December, an official handout disclosed Thursday. The statement said Omar had called on Governor Narindera Nath Vohra at Raj Bhawan where the Chief Minister briefed the Governor about various important matters relating to development, security and governance in the State.
The Director General of J&K Police, K Rajindera also called on the Governor and briefed him about the security preparedness in view of the upcoming poll in the state. Meanwhile the election commission of India has avoided to hold by-elections for the three assembly seats, left vacant by three PDP candidates who won parliament poll held in April/May. “There is no fun of holding by-poll for a span of two months,” an official said adding that the likelihood of assembly elections sooner than November has prompted the decision of avoiding by-poll for three seats.
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