A Thin Line Between War & Peace?

An article which appeared in the ‘National Interest’ an American international affairs magazine published by the Center for the National Interest, associated with the realist school of foreign policy thought, warns that “while Nawaz Sharif’s visit to New Delhi for the inauguration of Narendra Modi was encouraging, a single act of terrorism could spell disaster.” This sense of foreboding has been expressed by the authors- George Perkovich and Toby Dalton- both serving as deputy directors of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

Taking the line that, India’s new leadership under Narendra Modi could be provoked by militant groups in Pakistan, such as the Taliban, to instigate a war-like response, the article deals with the potential role for the United States in such a scenario- from preventing a similar situation to managing such an eventuality.

The article says, “an early dividend of Narendra Modi’s election as India’s prime minister appeared on May 26, when Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited New Delhi for the inauguration. In his winning election campaign last year, Sharif had declared, “If India takes one step for good relations, Pakistan will take two. We even want to put an end to visa requirements between the two countries…We want peace with India.” Now the two South Asian leaders are mutually pledged to resume a peace process that Sharif and then-Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had begun in 1999.”

But the authors Perkovich and Dalton, introduce their theory of the possibility of a breakout of armed conflict between India and Pakistan, almost without preamble or explanation. They say, “however, the hoped-for peace process could turn to war- with huge implications for the United States- if militant actors in Pakistan attack India in hopes of provoking Modi to ‘overreact.’ Something like this happened in 1999. Then, Pervez Musharraf and several colleagues in the Pakistan Army launched a clandestine incursion into the Kargil region of Kashmir, which triggered a limited, hard-fought war that India won, with diplomatic assistance from Bill Clinton. Today, the likely instigators would be the Pakistani Taliban or other militant groups who wish to divert the Pakistani state from cracking down on them.”

While it is not clear, what the authors mean by an ‘overreaction’ from Modi, they claim that “many Pakistanis loathe Modi as a belligerent anti-Muslim Hindu fundamentalist.” 

“What distinguishes the militants from other Pakistanis is an interest in provoking Modi into military action that would unite Pakistanis in a war against India instead of against the militants themselves. Given Modi’s reputation and self-image as a strongman, it is difficult to imagine he would not respond forcefully to violence emanating from Pakistan. As one of his top advisors put it recently, “Modi will have to respond to an attack or he will lose all his credibility.”

Critics here could find some of the views expressed in this article somewhat insular and wanting in perspective, but their assessment of the region being something of a tinderbox waiting to explode at the slightest accidental provocation, is still a view many hold, given the history of mistrust and conflict between the two countries. 

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