It’s Modi all the way

It’s all over, bar the shouting. Unless the exit polls have got it horribly wrong – as they admittedly did in 2004 and 2009 – Narendra Modi is all set to become the next Prime Minister of India.

His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) should get between 240 and 290 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the Lower House of the Indian Parliament. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is expected to win only a little over 100 seats. It could be the BJP’s best-ever showing and the Congress’ worst.

The magic number is 272, for a working majority in parliament. Even if the NDA falls somewhat short of that figure, it is bound to attract some of the smaller parties and a few “independents”. After all, bees are always attracted to nectar and, bear in mind, the lotus flower is the electoral symbol of the BJP!

The exit polls also show that the formidable J. Jayalalithaa’s AIDMK in Tamil Nadu will probably pick up at least 25 seats; Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress Party (TCP) in West Bengal also about the same number, and Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Oddisha, perhaps another 14 seats. Mamata has already declared that her party will have nothing to do with the NDA. But the other two have kept their options open. The BJD was once allied with the BJP, and should Jayalalithaa be offered an important cabinet position, she might be persuaded to bring her party’s seats into the BJP-led coalition, to strengthen it yet further. She has made no secret of her prime ministerial ambitions and this could be her first step forward.

However, the NDA would prefer not to depend on such fickle allies and rather make it on its own. Before the exit polls this seemed unlikely. Now, it is possible. The other scenario that I had outlined in a previous column, of the NDA getting only about 200 seats, or less, and a “third front” holding the balance, goes out of the window, if the exit polls are right.

Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JDU) in Bihar, which was considered to be a key element in that “third front” looks out of the picture, leaving the road open for Modi. There is also now no question of the BJP bringing in an alternate leader to Modi, to make a winning coalition more acceptable. It is clearly Modi all the way.

What has made the big difference?

Basically, the impressive showing of the BJP in the key states of Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar, India’s two least developed but heavily populated states. UP alone commands 80 seats, the most of any Indian state, and victory there has usually meant victory at the Centre. The exit polls give the BJP a commanding 70 to 80 seats in those two states. Modi’s campaign-managers were smart enough to make him stand from Varanasi (also called Benares), Hinduism’s holiest city, located in eastern UP and close enough to Bihar. That became a focal point, garnering media attention. Here, Modi was able to gather the Hindu vote, whereas elsewhere the emphasis was on good governance and removal of corruption.

Indeed, those were the three elements in his campaign that resonated most and had widespread appeal: Hindutva, development and clean government. India’s 100 million new voters, particularly the urban upwardly-mobile youngsters, fed up of corruption and looking for job opportunities, were attracted by the last first two elements, traditionalists by the first.

Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are three other major Indian states, all presently ruled by the BJP. The exit polls indicate that the BJP will hold its own there and that there is no “anti-incumbency” factor. In Gujarat (Modi’s own state), the BJP should make a virtual clean sweep and perform strongly in the other two. In Maharashtra, where the Congress, in alliance with Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is currently in power, the opposition BJP-Shiv Sena combine is likely to overtake its rival, say the exit polls. That is bad news for the Congress/NCP combine, since a state election is due shortly in Maharashtra. There is already talk that the NCP might jump ship and join the BJP.

The only good news for the Congress comes in southern India. In Kerala, it seems to have held its own, pushing the “left” into second place yet again, while in Tamil Nadu, with Jayalalithaa holding sway, there is little evidence of the “Modi wave”. In Karnataka, the Congress and the BJP seem evenly matched, while in Andhra Pradesh (now called Seemandhra, after the new state of Telengana was recently formed), the alliance between the BJP and Chandrababy Naidu’s Telegu Desam Party’s (TDP) seems to have swung the voters its way and pushed the Congress into second place.

What about the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which did so well in Delhi, not so long ago, and from which much was expected? It may get a couple of seats in its stronghold, Delhi, and possibly another one or two, in Punjab, where it has made a surprisingly good showing. But that’s about all. It needs to strengthen its grassroots support, nation-wide, for the next election, if it is to be a credible alternative to the Congress and the BJP.

What about the Congress Party? It is still hoping that the exit polls have got it all wrong, as they did in 2004 and 2009, though I very much doubt it. Feedback through the electronic, print and social media, has come a long way in the last decade. India is living in a new world, at least as far as communications go. The Congress – and the Nehru/Gandhi family in particular – need to introspect deeply on what went wrong and how to put it right. They have the next five years to do so. Khaleej Times

Rahul Singh is the former editor of Reader’s Digest, Indian Express and Khaleej Times

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