Srinagar- Ahead of the upcoming assembly elections in J&K, central Kashmir’s Budgam is set for a high-voltage political contest between arch rivals NC and the PDP.
With eight candidates in fray for the Budgam seat, observers maintain that the main contest is going to be between the National Conference (NC) Vice President Omar Abdullah and Aga Syed Muntazir the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and son of Hurriyat leader Aga Syed Hassan. Both Omar and Muntazir are locked in a fierce battle for dominance in this politically crucial constituency. Interestingly Omar enjoys support of Muntazir’s cousin Aga Ruhullah who is sitting NC MP.
Pertinently, the National Conference has represented the Budgam Assembly segment since 1977 and has never witnessed any NC candidate’s defeat so far.
However, this time the political dynamics have completely changed with Aga Hassan’s son throwing his hat into the ring on PDP ticket, challenging the NC’s stronghold.
In the last Assembly election held in 2014, Aga Ruhullah Mehdi of NC secured a total of 30,090 Votes, taking a lead of 2,787 votes from Ghulam Mohi-ud-din Bhat of the PDP who secured 27,303 Votes.
Omar’s Bid to Keep the NC Flag Flying
Omar Abdullah, who at first declined to contest an Assembly election before statehood was restored is contesting simultaneously from Ganderbal and Budgam assembly segments. Omar is gearing up to ensure that the party’s dominance in Budgam remains unshaken. However, the battle is going to be harder than ever.
Syed Ghulam Hussain Gilani, a former MLA from Budgam, represented the segment four times in the assembly, In more recent years, Aga Ruhullah, a three-time legislator from Budgam (2002, 2008, and 2014), has played a significant role in cementing the NC’s influence in the region. However, obsevers’ say he has not been able to carry out much development in the last nearly two decades.
Omar is eyeing support from NC leaders like Ruhullah and Aga Mehmood, also from the same clan and his party’s traditional voter base in Sunni dominated localities. However, observers say this time around it is not going to be a cakewalk for the NC Vice-President.
Muntazir is banking on the influence of the Aga family name among Shia pockets of Budgam, combined with the PDP’s cadre in the district, to gain an upper hand over Omar Abdullah.
He is positioning himself as a leader who can bring change and address the needs of the people with a fresh perspective, challenging the status quo that has dominated the area for decades.
“I am someone who has been chosen by the people of Budgam to bring about positive changes in the Budgam district. I don’t want women on the streets, as long as I am there, I will fight for my people on the streets” Muntazir told a gathering in the village of Kakarmaran.
Muntazir further said that I don’t want to see women on the streets either campaigning for him.
“On the day of voting women will come out in proper hijab, vote and return to their homes with dignity” he said as his supporters cheered.
A Family Divided
Further complicating the contest is the candidacy of Muntazir’s uncle, Aga Syed Ahmad who is running for office on the Awami National Conference (ANC) ticket. Although not expected to win a significant share of the vote, his presence in the election is likely to add a new layer of complexity.
The ANC is expected to pull a few thousand votes, which could potentially disrupt the PDP’s and NC’s chances of securing a clear victory. This family split across different parties has made the Budgam election more unpredictable than ever.
The Vote Bank
The Shia votes are set to get divided with a major share of votes going to Muntazir, while Ruhullah and Aga Mehmood’s supporters may get divided since Mehmood was dropped at the last minute to give way for Omar.
Shia leader and Peoples Conference General Secretary’s Moulvi Imran Raza Ansari’s supporters are also expected to vote for Muntazir and give him an edge over his NC rival.
While Shia voters will play a major role, the Sunni vote bank which consists of the majority of voters in Budgam constituency will likely decide the new assembly member from Budgam.
While Omar Abdullah is striving to ensure his entry into the new legislative assembly from at least one of the two constituencies, Aga Muntazir seeks to dent the NC stranglehold over the Aga clan.
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