PDP-BJP Break-Up and Future of Kashmir

The recent breakup might have been surprise for political actors of PDP but for the majority of commoners, this was on predictable lines. PDP is a regional political party with majority of its support base in Kashmir while as BJP is a dominant political party at national level. Prior to this BJP wasn't on the scene of state polity. Neither was it able to sit in the government not even able to manage a tiny share in 88 seat legislative assembly. Modi wave and the conservative mania of time was very well utilised in the Jammu region to emerge as dominant force even upto the deciding factor in government formation. The performance of PDP in Kashmir was dominant among NC and INC , therefore breaking the past norm of regional party alliance evolved as Hobson's choice before Late Mufti Syed. 

At broader perspective the alliance of BJP and PDP was therefore based on antagonistic ideological beliefs. BJP's decision was akin to snake waiting at the mouth of hole to bite the enemy. But why BJP took the decision in such a hurry ?

There are numerous factors responsible for withdrawal of support. First of all Modi wave is waning. The steam of 2014 is obviously a thing of past. The hype of deep conservatism doesn't lasts long. The performance of Modi government is going to face a bitter test for any further support. Bihar state assembly elections , Gujarat weakness,  Karnataka failure and recent miserable performance in UP by-elections have shaken Modi government. Whether movement rests on decline or Modi re emerges is not known yet but the events are indicating a decline in support base. Although there are several reasons behind such failures but the consistent criticism of Kashmir policy by opponents has shared the causative component. The alliance with PDP always made  Modi government look week in front of opposition given its hard stance on Kashmir. The ceasefire and the unabated killing of army soldiers was described as failure. Therefore to curb the opposition attacks ahead of elections the decision had become a necessity.

Secondly the diametrically opposite stand on sensitive issues, led to mounting suspicion in BJPs core support base.

Thirdly the ceasefire issued during month of Ramazan-ul- Mubarak perturbed the mutual understanding. The overall law and order improved because of halt in ops. It's to be mentioned here that Mehbooba Mufti has been pleading for ceasefire in the face of BJP leaders stiff opposition. This notion improved prospect of PDP to some extent but caused embarrassment to BJP at national level especially after the killing of soldier Aurangzeb and intermittent grenade attacks.

The attempts by BJP brass to recover from the loss of face at national level was evident when Defence Minister Nirmala Sitaraman visited home of slain soldier Aurangzeb. No Defence Minister visited the residence of Lt Ummer Fayaz who was killed in similar fashion. 
Polity of Kashmir seems in crisis but the law and order is facing resurgent crisis . Post 2016 period witnessed an upsurge in the civilian casualties during encounters. Whether during or post encounter youth of Valley is facing the severe restrictions in day to day life.  Education is in crisis, economy is in shambles. Tourisism id on downslide. The internet remains under permanent gag for weeks which prohibits the e-commerce and e-education in the Valley. 
On the other side of story the continued rise in domestic support of militancy is dubbed as dangerous trend . Highly qualified youth are taking to arms to fight Indian forces. Engineers, Doctors, Moulvi's are turning militants. The radicalism is on peak in southern part of the Valley. Therefore the administrative mechanism hardly matters in day today activities of common people who aspire peace and stability. The repeated human rights violation has shrinked the space for saner voices. Local officials have begun refusing to serve in South Kashmir on the pretext disturbances. The people of Kashmir aren't waiting for any government formation or the continuation of Governors rule but peace and stability. Kashmir awaits resolution of the dispute to return to normalcy in quick possible time so that a loss of life and property comes to an end. Let's hope and pray for better future tomorrow.

Shahid Majeed Mir 

Misribehak Machil. Kupwara and 

[email protected]

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