India and Pakistan have come to a point where any dialogue between them looks a distant possibility. A measure of how far the two countries have moved away from each other can be gauged from the anti-Pakistan political rhetoric used by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the ongoing Gujarat state polls. He has once again invoked the country in abhorrent terms, saying it was conspiring to install its preferred government in Gujarat with Congress leader Ahmad Patel as the Chief Minister. This is extraordinary, both the accusation itself and the Prime Minister making it. What is more, the PM didnt say it in rhetorical terms. He even revealed the contours of this conspiracy: Aiyar organizing a dinner at his residence which was attended by the Pakistan High Commissioner and the other senior Congress leaders including the former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, former Vice President Hamid Ansari and the former Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor.
Later talking to media, General Kapoor said that the domestic politics was not discussed at all in the meeting. Pakistan has since too jumped into the fray calling on India to stop dragging Pakistan into its electoral debate and win victories on own strength rather than fabricated conspiracies, which are utterly baseless and irresponsible.
However, Modis invoking of Pakistans name is not only about Gujarat elections. And it would be acceptable, if it were so. The problem is that it has a deeply troubling dimension. The PM is talking about the neighbouring country and also Muslims in such pejorative terms because it is acceptable in the country and also electorally beneficial. And if Pakistan evokes so much hatred and suspicion in India, why would a PM bother to engage it and try to resolve the issues with it. There is little incentive to do this.
And with both the countries looking forward to their respective national elections in the following two years, it looks unlikely that there will be substantive efforts to engage each other. Window for dialogue is fast closing. In the next few months Pakistan would already be in election mode circumscribing the chance and the space for a sustained dialogue. And by 2018 also, the government in New Delhi will have an eye on the 2019 polls, dissuading it from a troubled engagement with its neighbour. The period thus will hardly be conducive for a purposeful dialogue. This leaves India, Pakistan the coming few months to try and re-establish the contact and hope to carry it on into the next two years. If they choose to squander the chance, they are unlikely to get it until after 2019. But if the discourse in Gujarat polls is anything to go by, the dialogue with Pakistan seems to be on nobodys mind in New Delhi. In fact, the BJP government might see more political advantage in the continuing animosity with the neighbour. And it is a tragedy. For such a state of affairs would ensure there is unlikely to be any rapprochement between the neighbours in the foreseeable future. We need statesmen who transcend the political compulsions and lead rather than follow their respective populations.
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