Indo-Pak NSA level talks failed even before they could begin because India imposed two absurd conditions that Pak should not raise Kashmir issue and should not talk to Kashmiri separatists. This stand of India has been criticized widely in media and also by Indian political commentators. This happened despite the fact such stance had led to cancellation of Foreign Secretary level talks in August, 2014 as well and despite J&K Assembly passing a resolution last year that India should talk to Pakistan. Left to India and Pakistan there never will be a Kashmir solution.
Without unification of Kashmir there is no Kashmir solution. Theocratic Pakistan tried this many times militarily (at least to take Muslim Kashmir) in 1947, 1948, 1965, 1971, during Kargil, through ongoing proxy war etc but failed because India is ~ 6 times than Pakistan. So-called secular India (unlike Hindu Goa) never tried to take Muslim POK militarily. Not even once. Now after both India and Pakistan are having Nukes, the military solution to Kashmir problem has become almost impossible.
Therefore even if India and Pakistan talk to each other about Kashmir there will be no outcome. Because Pakistan can not give POK to India and Hindu India will simply not allow further dismemberment of their motherland. This is precisely the reason that neither Pakistan nor India nor any Kashmiri leader has so far put forward any tangible solution to Kashmir problem which can form the basis of talks between India and Pakistan.
Does it mean that there should be no talks between India and Pakistan and Kashmir problem should be left to fester? The answer is emphatically no. For the simple reason that it is not merely military of Pakistan (pro-actively) and military of India (re-actively) who lost lives for Kashmir but as per media reports about one hundred thousand Jihadis have lost lives for Kashmir. Hence they will never allow Pak Government to forget Kashmir (and will keep on providing to Pak Government the foot soldiers for carrying out subversive activities in India)
Here lies the main problem not only for India and Pakistan but for entire mankind. Earlier only fundamentalist elements in Pakistan were pressuring Pakistan government to take Kashmir who were kept quiet by Pak Government (which became a simple matter for Pak Government especially after 9/11 when USA forced Pakistan to abandon its earlier policy of equating terrorists with freedom fighters for independence of Kashmir from India).
But after rise of ISIS in West Asia region the chances of ISIS getting a foothold in Pakistan (including POK and even in Indian side of Kashmir where Pakistani / ISIS flags are hoisted after Namaz practically on every Friday) are very high. Of-course coupled with politically volatile situation in Afghanistan the entire AF-PAK region coming under ISIS influence is highly likely if India makes the position of Government of Pakistan vis-a-vis Jihadis very weak by not solving Kashmir problem.
It is precisely here that the World-community (especially USA which leads coalition against ISIS) should be concerned. So-far bloodthirsty ISIS has not been able to enter Sunni majority SAARC region because Shia Iran (and Shia Eastern Iraq) are the geographical barriers. But if due to unresolved Kashmir problem fundamentalist forces in Pakistan (and even in volatile Afghanistan) invite ISIS in AF-PAK region then what destructive & gory impact it will have on entire SAARC region (having about 700 million Muslims) can be anybody’s guess.
Therefore Washington should ensure that during September 2015 UN General Assembly Session, India and Pakistan are made to sit on dialogue table preferably on the soil of USA [because no other country has a will or clout to do it as is evident from the fact that despite understanding reached in July at UFA meet in Russia (in which two non-NATO permanent members of UN the Russia and China also participated) the Indo-Pak NSA level talks did not take place].
Here one may ask that when there is no Kashmir solution (as mentioned above) then what USA will gain by constraining India and Pakistan to come on dialogue table. But it is not a correct assessment. In fact there is no Kashmir solution when looked from the point of view of India and Pakistan but there will be Kashmir solution when looked from the viewpoint of global community (in view of ISIS factor and even from the viewpoint of the people of entire J&K including POK) and that precisely the USA can try to reach by mobilizing global-community for such accord.
Hem Raj Jain
Pennington, NJ – 08534, USA
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