New Delhi: In India, the recent surge in human infections caused by a proliferation of types of animal flu viruses has caused about a 1000 deaths. Cases of swine flu are now being reported from across the length and breadth of the country including Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, Nagaland and Bihar. A cause of concern for the World Health Organisation (WHO) is the growing number of viruses that have spun off from the two main strains, creating a new dynamic. Although labs in India are mostly looking for the H1N1 strain, other mutant strains like H3N2 virus and the H2N2 sub-type could be responsible for fatalities. The other fear is that the unusual weather conditions could aggravate the situation. Dry and hot weather is considered necessary to curtail the spread of the virus, whereas the prediction of rainy days ahead and increase in humidity could lead to further infections.
As per the latest reports, 16,235 people tested positive for swine flu till February 25, 2015. The Health Ministry data showed 965 deaths with Rajasthan and Gujarat being the worst-hit states so far with 234 and 231 deaths, respectively. However, what is important to note is that most of the deaths have been from complications arising from other diseases or disorders present in the patient. Patients have been coming into hospitals very late, further aggravating their condition, said a statement issued by the ministry. A panic-driven rush for vaccines at drug stores is responsible for low stocks. According to reports, the trivalent influenza vaccine gives protection against H1N1, H3N2 and Influenza B. The vaccine takes at least two weeks to develop immunity and provides about 60-80% protection for about a year. Following consultations with experts, the Indian government has recommended vaccination only for health workers. The Indian Health Minister JP Nadda has urged the public not to panic.
The health ministry has also said that the drug oseltamivir remains effective for treatment. Virologists have recommending the use of N-95 face masks which filter out over 95% of small air droplets if worn correctly.
But the masks should not be worn for more than two hours and need to be disposed off carefully. Washing hands thoroughly for a good two minutes using a soap solution has also been recommended as a way to reduce exposure risks.
The Meteorological Department has forecast unusual weather for this time of year across India with unseasonal rainy spells. Consecutive Western Disturbances and induced cyclonic circulations are likely to produce rain across north and Northwest India, commencing from Saturday, 28 Feb evening till March 3.
This has raised serious concerns over H1N1 influenza, as the weather is reported to play a major role in intensifying the flu this season. To contain the spread of the deadly virus, it is very necessary for temperatures to rise and for humidity levels to drop- both of which are not in the offing. Preventive measures announced by the state government of Gujarat includes a ban on most public gatherings of five or more people in Ahmedabad to halt the spread of swine flu. Marriages and death processions have been exempted.
In 2014, 937 cases were reported in total, including 218 deaths. Back to back weather systems this season have kept the humidity levels high and have also influenced the wind pattern across the plains of northwest India and adjoining areas, resulting in swine flu virus to sustain for a longer period.
Rain is forecast between February 28 and March 02 over a large part of India including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand, which might lead to further spreading of the swine flu virus.
The WHO has said it is “carefully watching” the swine flu situation in India while ruling out signs of a large outbreak as yet. The outbreak is expected to subside as temperatures rise during the summer but could pick up when temperatures drop after the rains in July.
A statement from the WHO said it is concerned about the recent increase in human infections caused by bird flu viruses and a proliferation of the types of animal flu viruses sparking infections in people. “Virologists interpret the recent proliferation of emerging viruses as a sign that co-circulating influenza viruses are rapidly exchanging genetic material to form novel strains,” the statement said. “The consequences for animal and human health are unpredictable yet potentially ominous, it said.
“Influenza viruses can constantly reinvent themselves in a dazzling array of possible combinations. This appears to be happening now at an accelerated pace,” the WHO said.
World over, there have been 777 known cases of H5N1 infection since late 2003 and 428 of those people have died. That is a fatality rate of 55 per cent.
Slightly less deadly is H7N9, a bird flu virus that emerged in China in late winter 2013. It appears to kill about 36 per cent of infected people. But the virus may find it easier to infect people than H5N1. In the two years since it first appeared, H7N9 has infected at least 602 people and 227 of them have died. In the past two years, new bird flu viruses have popped up. There are now H5N2, H5N3, H5N6 and H5N8 strains.
All this activity comes at a time when the world’s need for more effective flu vaccines has been firmly underscored by this winter’s mismatch of the seasonal flu shot to the circulating human flu viruses, the WHO said. H3N2 viruses caused most of the disease this flu season, but the version in the vaccine was out of date, rendering the vaccine poorly protective for most people.
The WHO update said that while pandemic preparedness levels in the world are higher than they have been in the past, better vaccines and vaccines that are faster to make, need to be a global goal.
“During a severe pandemic, many lives will be lost in the three to four months needed to produce vaccines,” the agency warned.
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