In 2003, USA attacked Iraq on the false of pretext of having Weapons of Mass Destruction, WMD. Iraq had earlier been defeated by US and its allied forces in 1991 after Iraq had annexed Kuwait in the summer of 1990. Iraq had already paid a huge price for the misdemeanors of its brutal President Saddam Hussein. As subsequent events would suggested, Americas invasion of Iraq in 2003 was totally uncalled for and turned out to be a disaster for the country. Saddam Hussein was captured and subsequently executed in Dec 2006.
One of the biggest blunders that the US committed after invading Iraq was to dissolve Iraqs military and also its defence ministry. This led to thousands of job losses for Iraqi troops as well as seriously weakening Iraqs military capability. Many of the former army men under Saddam are now believed be with the ISIS. The recent victories by ISIS in Mosul, Tikrit and Fallujah puts serious question marks on the ability of the American trained Iraqi forces to hold on and defend what is left with the Govt forces. Not only did ISIS create mayhem in Mosul by killing people, but they also managed to loot more than $ 400 million from Mosuls Central Bank, thereby securing their financial resources. More than 500, 00 civilians have fled the city.
American forces withdrew from Iraq in Dec 2011. What followed their departure was a spate of suicide bombings and killings across Iraq. The country was engulfed in a civil war and the Govt never really seemed to be in control of the situation. The ferocity with which ISIS has taken over Mosul and indulged in death and destruction doesnt bode well for the stability and security of not only Iraq, but of the whole region. By now it has become apparent that Iraqi forces will find it extremely hard to defend Baghdad, if ISIS attacks the city.
The stated goal of ISIS is to carve out a State from parts of Iraq and Sham. They seem to be right on track given their recent advances. What needs to be seen is how Iraqs neighbors, specifically Saudi Arabia and Iran react to these fast paced developments. Not only Iraqs neighbors, but other countries will get affected by these events. About forty Indians were reported to have been abducted in Iraq. The control of Mosul and other cities in Iraq and the continuing uncertainty there will keep the crude prices on the boil. Countries which are highly import dependent for their energy needs like India will also see an escalation in inflation if this tension lingers on. Global Crude prices have already moved up by more than 5% in the last one week.
With instability in Syria and now in Iraq, things seem to be going from bad to worse in the Middle East. With the US still undecided about its military role in Iraq, it seems quite likely that the Iraqi forces will not been able to halt the march of ISIS on their own. The happenings in Iraq also raise questions about the stability and viability of Afghanistan, once American troops leave from there. Taliban will be keenly watching the developments in Iraq and will be salivating at the prospect of the US troops leaving Afghanistan. That might give the Taliban a clear advantage against the hurriedly cobbled up Afghan Army. The signs from Iraq seem to be ominous for Afghanistan.
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